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Strategies & Market Trends : Stocks Crossing The 13 Week Moving Average <$10.01 -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Strauss who wrote (8999)	6/12/2001 12:06:20 PM
From: James Strauss	Respond to of 13094

A 2 Year Look At The Nasdaq... **************************************** There is no question we have been in a Bear Market since March of 2000... bigcharts.com Connecting a trendline from the March top in 2000 takes us to the 2800 to 2900 area for a breakout of this Bear downtrend... So, until that happens, we are still in a Bear Market... Connecting a trendline from the September top in 2000 takes us to the 2100 area for a breakout within the BEAR downtrend... We have been bouncing back and fourth within this range for months... That's why the 2100 area is hanging tough today... The dip to the 1600 area in April was the extreme usually seen at a bottom... Sometimes these extremes are repeated... When that happens we get the Bullish double bottom... The two scenarios before us are: 1. We hold at 2100 and slowly build a base and then rise until we test the 2900 area... 2. We retest the 1600 area for a dramatic panic selloff which could even see a sub 1600 intaday final capitulation... One of these two scenarios is likely to occur in the next three months... With rising oil prices and poor earnings ahead, and economic rumblings coming out of Japan, the second scenario seems more likely at this time... Jim