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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rarebird who wrote (4874)	6/12/2001 3:34:28 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

i agree...the stock market is pricing in a so-called V-shaped recovery, but it seems very unlikely that we will get one. on the contrary, i believe the recession is in many ways just in its beginning stages. i expect the service sector to be hit badly in coming months, and the unemployment situation should worsen accordingly. consumers are very likely to cut back on discretionary spending. the stock market is of course also held afloat by the Fed's ministrations...which will continue until the market stops them (either via a falling dollar, rising inflationary pressures, bond market sell-off, or simply no more takers for the money, a la Japan...or a combination of all those).

To: Rarebird who wrote (4874)	6/12/2001 3:39:54 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

tee hee hee hee >>3:30PM ET It's days like today where you kick yourself for not getting in at the bottom. The indices have turned around dramatically off their lows and are now in positive territory despite a significant warning from Nokia (NOK 23.44 -5.27) this morning. One of the most impressive is RF Micro (RFMD 25.67 -0.74) which traded as low as 20.80 after this Nokia supplier reassured that JunQ was safe....Most groups are solidly in positive territory now. Biotechs are trading strongly heading into the close with some impressive rallies off their lows....<<

To: Rarebird who wrote (4874)	6/13/2001 5:33:35 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<Some Interesting Stats: Total state unemployment insurance claims has averaged over 2.8 million in the latest two weeks of May, up more than 400,000 within three months. The magnitude of this rise in such a short period has never before occurred within the 34 plus year history of the claims statistics without a recession. In fact, over the last 30 years the largest 3 month rise in average claimants that has ever occurred without a recession is 277,000, which was in January 1988. Year/year rise in total claims on the same measurement basis is now over 800,000 - that has never occurred unless you were at least 3 months into a recession.> Interesting... AND cutting edge.. ie. the ramifications to income, savings, defaults, yada yada yada won't be known for months. DAK

To: Rarebird who wrote (4874)	6/13/2001 10:32:57 PM
From: jjetstream	Respond to of 74559

<Some Interesting Stats: Total state unemployment insurance claims has averaged over 2.8 million in the latest two weeks of May, up more than 400,000 within three months. The magnitude of this rise in such a short period has never before occurred within the 34 plus year history of the claims statistics without a recession. In fact, over the last 30 years the largest 3 month rise in average claimants that has ever occurred without a recession is 277,000, which was in January 1988. Year/year rise in total claims on the same measurement basis is now over 800,000 - that has never occurred unless you were at least 3 months into a recession.> It would seem that this should have been expected with all the layoffs over the last several months........ Subject 50782