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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (685)	6/12/2001 6:56:18 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Respond to of 95838

RE: " Cary what are yours and why?" I have posted my favorites and why, my entry points, my % assets deployed in the market, and the stock/cash %'s of the assets deployed on the AMAT thread. I have recently stopped reading and posting on that thread because the signal to noise has dropped and the sensitivity of the noise makers has risen. I like semi-equip comapnies AMAT, ASML, KLAC, and NVLS. I like semi companies ALTR, LLTC, MXIM, and XLNX. All of these companies have fundamental technology leadership, dominant market share, and significant barriers to entry. These are the safest bets, not the ones with maximum upside. I have chosen the safest bets from among ~ 75 companies I follow in Yahoo portfolios because I am extremely concerned about the current tech situation. We are watching the unfolding of a huge bursted bubble. The bubble greatly distorted both the stock price and the level of business of most tech companies. Nobody seems to have a clue about where or when the technology industry will bottom. The valuations given to companies in this uncertain situation are distorted by market players memories of recent prices. The valuations accorded various tech sectors are also inconsistent and seem to reflect a basic lack of understanding of tech interrelationships. I jumped on your post for this reason. The EMS companies will use more chips when their business recovers, but they will not buy semi-equipment. In fact, the semi companies that supply them more chips will not buy more semi-equipment until output ramps up to above 2000 levels because they had the capacity to produce the 2000 level, and they bought a lot of equipment in 2000 (and 2001) that had not ramped up then.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (685)	6/12/2001 7:26:17 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95838

RtS, Your following statement about making long term gain in the group prompted me to post some relatively long term data about the semi-equip prices. <I want to make money exclusively on the long side of this group because there are very few groups of stocks that have been able to generate profits as well as this industry. Short term stock prices may be at risk but longer term they will be higher for almost every stock in the industry. That's just my opinion and hopefully time will prove me right.> I started maintaining a weekly list of prices on semi-equip stocks at the week ending 6 June in 1997. Last Friday's close on 6/8 marked a 4 year period of price history. Comparing prices between the 2 dates might be of interest. When I started the list there were 40 stocks in the group. In the interim, due mostly, if not all, to mergers, the group has shrunk to 30 stocks. The first list will be given in alphabetical order, the next post will sort by percent change. Note that the group as a whole has not done as well as the SOX-X or the NASDAQ composite. Actually, the group gain of 50 percent over the 4 years is nothing to shout about.<gg> 6/6/97 6/8/01 CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT SYMBOL PRICE PRICE CHANGE AMAT 15.63 55.27 254 ASML 8.46 25.40 200 ASYT 9.81 19.50 99 ATMI 25.25 28.66 14 BRKS 17.50 56.00 220 CMOS 13.75 24.31 77 COHU 17.38 21.69 25 CYMI 26.69 31.24 17 DPMI 50.63 52.00 3 EGLS 25.56 17.09 -33 FSII 14.38 11.76 -18 HELX 19.75 33.30 69 IMSC 17.63 21.39 21 KLAC 23.19 58.75 153 KLIC 15.57 17.42 12 LRCX 11.75 32.07 173 LTXX 6.13 31.30 411 MTSN 10.38 18.51 78 NANO 6.88 30.03 336 NVLS 12.50 55.03 340 PHTN 7.75 31.05 301 PLAB 21.88 25.19 15 PRIA 37.25 18.95 -49 SFAM 34.00 4.36 -87 SMTL 6.44 12.40 93 TER 20.25 45.09 123 TGAL 7.13 3.20 -55 UTEK 20.50 21.82 6 VECO 33.44 49.29 47 WFR 37.00 6.95 -81 TOTALS 574.44 859.02 50 SOX-X 297.27 675.70 127 COMPQX1390.05 2215.10 59