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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (688)	6/12/2001 7:35:12 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95850

Sorting the list by percentage gain over a 4 year period shows how important it is to be a good "stock picker". If you want to "pick" them and then "forget" them, you better pick the "right" stocks. 6/6/97 6/8/01 CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT SYMBOL PRICE PRICE CHANGE LTXX 6.13 31.30 411 NVLS 12.50 55.03 340 NANO 6.88 30.03 336 PHTN 7.75 31.05 301 AMAT 15.63 55.27 254 BRKS 17.50 56.00 220 ASML 8.46 25.40 200 LRCX 11.75 32.07 173 KLAC 23.19 58.75 153 TER 20.25 45.09 123 ASYT 9.81 19.50 99 SMTL 6.44 12.40 93 MTSN 10.38 18.51 78 CMOS 13.75 24.31 77 HELX 19.75 33.30 69 VECO 33.44 49.29 47 COHU 17.38 21.69 25 IMSC 17.63 21.39 21 CYMI 26.69 31.24 17 PLAB 21.88 25.19 15 ATMI 25.25 28.66 14 KLIC 15.57 17.42 12 UTEK 20.50 21.82 6 DPMI 50.63 52.00 3 FSII 14.38 11.76 -18 EGLS 25.56 17.09 -33 PRIA 37.25 18.95 -49 TGAL 7.13 3.20 -55 WFR 37.00 6.95 -81 SFAM 34.00 4.36 -87 TOTALS 574.44 859.02 50 SOX-X 297.27 675.70 127 COMPQX1390.05 2215.10 59

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (688)	6/12/2001 9:39:49 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95850

So would I be correct in assuming you see the advantage in trading the ranges on these stocks? If I could buy semiconductor stocks at the right price I would be happy to hold them but not forever as opposed to many other groups of stocks. This is predicated on the fact that this is a cyclical industry. As an experiment I am going to post my buy and sell points on Cary's favorites among the semiconductor stocks. Stock Symbol Buy Price Trade Price AMAT 48 57 ASML 23 27 KLAC 49 62 NVLS 46 58 ALTR 23 30 LLTC 46 57 MXIM 48 58 XYNX 40 49 finance.yahoo.com The nice thing about these stocks is that they will weather any further downturn. However since we do not know when we will see the actual upturn it might be advisable to trade such stocks within their ranges. These are my own buy/sell points based on the charts I am looking at today. As with any group of technology stocks these stocks will be effected by the overall strength in the NASDAQ and the SOX in particular. That being said if we assume we are in a trading range that is unlikely to collapse because of continued financial stimuli in the face of last year burst bubble. Now I am going to make some assumptions. I am going to assume there is little chance that the NASDAQ or SOX will decline substantially because investors are already afraid they missed the bottom. That is the GREED Factor. On the other side of the coin is the knowledge that keeps even long term investors awake at night because PE's are high now in the group. That would be the FEAR factor. Between Fear and Greed there exists a 20% trading range on nearly every one of these stocks where plenty of money can be made. Most of these stocks are going to follow the trading of the SOX which to me still looks to be headed back to 575. In essence the SOX is in a 20% range as well. Obviously I am not likely to get the full 20% out of any of the stocks should I choose to trade one but 15% is very, very, very doable. This is what I did on KLIC. Cary's favorite all look like better long term holds in case I am wrong. So I may trade one or more of these stocks. If so I will post my entries and exit points. Don are you opposed to discussing semiconductor stocks outside of the semi equipment group on this thread? Cary, thank you once again for your explanation as it concerns the lack of relationship between EMS companies and semi capital equipment company. As I said I am more interested in trading stocks than understanding everything about the companies themselves. That being said I looked over your stock picks and they do look tremendous to me at the right buy points. RtS