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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (691)	6/12/2001 11:42:03 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95850

RE: "I am going to assume there is little chance that the NASDAQ or SOX will decline substantially because investors are already afraid they missed the bottom. and ...PE's are high now in the group." Everyone seems to be ignoring the Lucent manager who said that the telecom business might stay down for 12 to 18 months. If telecom business stays down, chip business stays down, and semi-equip business heads towards zero. In this scenario, investors will eventually realize that they did not miss the bottom and PE's will be even higher for chips and E will turn negative for semi-equips. What is the probability for this scenario? It was supposed to decrease as the year went on, but it seems to be increasing. The malaise has spread to Europe and, recently, reports indicate to Asia and South America. Among my favorites LLTC and MXIM have the least downside business risk and AMAT, ASML, KLAC, and NVLS the most.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (691)	6/13/2001 12:15:22 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95850

RtS, <So would I be correct in assuming you see the advantage in trading the ranges on these stocks?> Absolutely, I do try to trade the ranges with varying degrees of success. As I pointed out in the post to ST, a person can try to trade the mini-cycles within the major moves. The stocks that Cary has picked are obviously strong stocks that have done well over the long term, as well as being cyclical. Of the 8 stocks he has listed, 6 are part of the 16 stock SOX index. Three of the 6, AMAT, KLAC and NVLS are included in the group of semi-equips that I started in 1997. <However since we do not know when we will see the actual upturn it might be advisable to trade such stocks within their ranges.> IMO the big question right now is how long is the present "slump" going to continue. Are we going to have another visit to the "under 2000 area" on the NASDAQ prior to another rally, or is the NASDAQ going to "take off" from the present levels. Certainly these stocks are going to go higher in the future, but the key question is when? As of this past weekend, the semi-equips, as a group, are 15 months away from the high made in early March 2000. Past experience in 1995, 1997 and 1999/00 puts a complete up/down cycle in approximately a 2 year time period. Using this information as a guide, it would indicate a peak in about another 9 months which would be sometime in the first half (Mar/Apr) of 2002. All indications seem to point towards the above scenario. What we are really discussing here is - when will the real thrust begin towards the cycle top? Is it now, or are we going to have another mini-cycle or two before the big runup. Maybe we shouldn't care if there is a mini-cycle or two if we really believe the "2 year cycle" scenario. Nine months is not a very long time to wait to double or triple your money.<gg> That's what the stocks in Cary's list will probably do over that period if the past 3 cycles are any guide. We might want to remember this discussion next Mar/Apr and see where the 8 stocks listed are in price at that time compared to the present price today. Unless some unknown catastrophe happens in the next 9 months, IMO the scenario described is likely to happen. The 8 stocks that Cary has listed will be among the leaders in price gain over that period without a doubt. <Don are you opposed to discussing semiconductor stocks outside of the semi equipment group on this thread?> I think this thread is a good place for discussion of semiconductors and semi-equips - they go together. Don