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To: John Pitera who wrote (2373)6/14/2001 8:28:03 AM
From: Logain Ablar  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 2850
 
Hi John:

I'm not sure if I agree with the IBM forecast. They shouldn't come down unless they miss revenue / earnings.

On the flooding. Normally autos are not impacted since people drive the cars out of harms way (I take it this is not the case in Houston) but the homes are. I think any impact will be on the commercial side only, not homeowners.

The reason this time of year is not the best to invest in the PC insurers is more due to the cats (hurricanes, tornados) which IF they hit can really impact surplus. Typically the time to invest in the industry is right after some major cats. Stock price is depressed and carriers get to push through rate increases. October is more the month. I read they just raised the storm forecast for this season which increases the odds of a cat hitting the east coast.

Tim