Richard,
FWIW, most of Zeev's so-called "lap-dog followers" (Mark Johnson's degrading term for people like me who benefit from Zeev's wisdom, kindness, and market savvy; i.e., those people that MJ is trying to save from Zeev's influence) would agree and attest to the accuracy of Zeev's assessment to which MJ was replying.
Note that MJ did not disagree that Zeev was bearish 1/31. He simply said, "Duh. Everyone was bearish 1/31 AFTER seeing the bad news." What MJ doesn't tell you is that Zeev picked the 1/31 date several weeks BEFORE it happened. He predicted a strong January effect followed by a "February massacre" months before it occurred, if I remember correctly. I did great in January and February thanks to Zeev's predictions WELL IN ADVANCE of the events.
Zeev was bullish, I think in mid-March. I closed a lot of shorts mid-March that I planned to hold until the end of March. I left a lot of potential profit on the table by doing so. Furthermore, I went long at that time based on Zeev's stance and input from 5 or 6 other sources I follow and lost my shirt (not THAT bad), closing the trades at the bottom.
On April 4th, Zeev posted the following:
Message 15614594
"Sabre, it may take more than three weeks, but my "current" model still has (that) figure (2160) as a target for the next move up. It is a good 32% from the area we are in right now."
11 trading days later, Nasdaq touched 2200! Not a bad call, Mr. Zeev. What does MJ say about that?
At 2:52 on 4/4, Zeev posted the following:
Message 15613959
"Yes, quite disappointing, the rally started on time, but faded just as fast...right now we printed a new daily low at 1638.79, only 3 from the "expected" low of 1636, we'd better bounce from here, or else, I'll have a load of crow to eat..."
The daily low was within 3 points of Zeev's target, and then it was UP from there, exactly as Zeev had predicted IN ADVANCE. Zeev does eat crow occasionally, cuz the market changes, and so does Zeev's view of it, like a surfer reading the waves, but his long-term predictions have been incredible. What does MJ say about this post?
OK, Richard. I just found the main post that I was looking for. This is what Zeev posted at 2:12 on April 4th, 2001:
Message 15613640
"Well, I am back on the bu$$ here at $16.80. I was hoping for an excursion closer to $16, but I missed that entry. We are retesting the day's lows, as i expected, and as I mentioned yesterday, at 2:15 we should turn, another few minutes I would say. I also got into NVLS here at $34.06, BRKS at $37.56 and CYMI at $18.91. Fully loaded, let the rally come..."
Let me repeat, on 4/4/01, at 2:12 in the afternoon, with the Nasdaq about to close at a 52-week low, Zeev Hed, aka "Prince of the Lap-dogs", went on record as saying, "Fully loaded, let the rally come..."
For the record, I saw that post real-time and did NOT dive in, because under the circumstances, I was not willing to take the risk. I had just had various long positions close after hitting generous Stop Losses and I couldn't jump into new positions with so much uncertainty. Zeev seemed to be the only person who was bullish at that time and he had been incorrectly bullish for about 2 weeks, if I remember correctly. Others I respected were staunchly bearish. (Some highly paid for their investment advice.)
A warning and a recommendation, FWIW.
Warning: Zeev watches the market like a hawk and can turn on a dime. Unless you are a full-time daytrader, DON'T try to shadow his daily forays in and out of the market. You could lose your shirt as he makes 10% or more in a day. When I first started following him (~4 years ago), I jumped into several trades just as he was taking healthy profits. The exception to this rule is his longer term projections. Those are consistently right more than they are wrong. Sometimes he is very wrong, going bullish on RMBS around 40 shortly before it dropped to 15. MJ can quote that post and show how wrong Zeev can be. However, Zeev also said that if support didn't hold, RMBS could quickly drop to 15. I didn't trade that long or short, but I could have made a bundle had I shorted it with a tight stop loss.
Zeev is an incredible trader. The best I have seen. He claims to be right ~60% of the time (which I think is conservative), but he cuts his losses quickly and often takes big profits. Again, he does quite well in the market, but unless you are incredibly nimble, be careful if you try to shadow his trades.
Also, Zeev is incredibly prolific. It could take an hour some days just to read what he posts that day, and because he is responding to an ever-changing market, you almost have to read all of his posts to get the proper context. I doubt MJ does this. He looks at one or two posts, and intentionally or not, takes them out of context as "proof" that Zeev isn't what he seems to be. Yes, Zeev is very highly respected on SI, and I would argue that he is very highly respected by those who know him best.
Yes, if you took several weeks and read the last 12 months of Steve's Channelling Thread, you would be amazing at Zeev's prowess. Don't waste your time.
My Recommendation:
Start following him now and see how he does in the future. I am confident that you will:
1. be very impressed
2. get excellent insight into the CURRENT state of the market
3. learn a great deal about trading, investing, etc.
It will be a highly worthwhile experience.
I pay good money to get the McClellan Report. Tom McClellan picked Wednesday and Thursday of this week as a bottom, with a sharp rally into June 25th - 28th, a pull-back, and then a rally into July 3rd, not knowing whether the top would be in the June peak or around July 3rd. He then sees a major low in August, I believe near the end.
Last week, Zeev predicted that the Nasdaq would breach 2050 before options expiration (Friday 6/15). A rediculous prediction, but it came true today. Zeev sees some upside tomorrow, and then a sharp drop to 1850 over the next week or two, with July 3rd being a bottom.
Will July 3rd be a top like McClellan says or a bottom like Zeev says? What does MJ say?
I still have some long positions that I am hoping to close at a profit. I hope McClellan is right, but I bet Zeev is right. As a result, I am adding shorts to balance my portfolio, shorting the weak and longing the strong.
Note that this post is BEFORE next week. Zeev is on the record. MJ is not. If MJ has the chance, AFTER the fact he will criticize Zeev's apparent ineptitude, yet Zeev is better than any paid analyst I know. I just wish he would post a bried daily summary (before and after open?) on a separate thread so that part-timers like me could access his current perspective in a minute or two instead of taking almost an hour.
Don't waste your time on MJ or other naysayers. Put him on ignore like most of us have. Don't reply to any of his posts. He is a worthless nuisance with nothing of value to offer. Check out Zeev's current posts and if you find value, keep reading. If not, move on. It is as simple as that.
Be careful on SI or anywhere on the net. Don't trust anyone until they earn it. Zeev Hed and TATRADER (Gizzard Thread) have more than earned my trust over the past four years. I give them my highest commendation. You don't know me. My opinion should be suspect. Check out the facts and make your own opinion.
Best wishes for much success.
Be cautious in the market. When you get over-confident, realize that you are probably wrong. The market will eventually humble you. Don't let the market be your god. Life is too short. Wealth is too fleeting. People matter. Make your life count. If trading can help you do that, then give it your best. Whatever you hand finds to do, do it with all your might. But don't let your family, your job, or the rest of your life suffer. It is not worth it. Trading takes time, discipline, and effort. Success is not cheap. You will not get rich shadowing others. You need to be your own trader. But you can learn from people like Zeev and TATRADER. They are willing and able to help you learn and get started. Be thankful for that.
I sincerely hope that this helps you and others.
I have benefited greatly from Zeev and TATRADER, and this is my way of giving a little something back to the community.
Take it for what it is worth.
Best regards - GTC |
