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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: limtex who wrote (37829)	6/14/2001 7:26:02 AM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Job Cuts Renew Concern for Economy Wednesday June 13, 9:27 pm Eastern Time By Jackie Sindrich <<NEW YORK (Reuters) - A new wave of job cuts that has swept corporate America in recent days has triggered concerns that consumer confidence could take another plunge, threatening to prolong the U.S. economic downturn. On Wednesday, companies ranging across the economic landscape -- from film and imaging equipment maker Polaroid Corp. (NYSE:PRD - news) to food and consumer goods maker Sara Lee Corp. (NYSE:SLE - news) to paper and wood products giant Georgia-Pacific Corp. (NYSE:GP - news) -- said they were slashing jobs. The new round of cuts follows a lull of a few weeks in which stock markets began to regain some confidence after the massive job cuts announced mainly in the technology and telecommunications industries in the first quarter. ``The second round of layoffs may put downward pressure on consumer confidence. I think consumers will be a little harder pressed to be as optimistic about the economy,'' said Steven Wood, chief economist at FinancialOxygen, a Walnut Creek, California-based economic advisory firm. Economists have said that a rebound in consumer confidence holds the key to production recovery, and thus rehiring. But the recent surge in layoffs is likely to wear further on confidence, delaying the turnaround. ``Now it is catching up to the service sector, and more retail-oriented businesses,'' Wood said. On Wednesday, Polaroid said it was cutting its work force by 25 percent, or about 2,000 jobs over the next 18 months, as it attempts to lower its debt and inch back into the black. Also on Wednesday, Georgia-Pacific said it will close three plants and cut production at others, saying it would take a charge for severance costs. Semiconductor maker Integrated Device Technology Inc. (NasdaqNM:IDTI - news) said it would cut 900 jobs, or 18 percent of its work force. FIRMS ``LEAPING AT THE OPPORTUNITY'' TO CUT JOBS On Tuesday, Avaya Inc. (NYSE:AV - news), the communications equipment maker spun off from Lucent Technologies Inc. (NYSE:LU - news), cut 3,000 jobs, or 11 percent of its staff, because of lower-than-expected sales. On Monday, DuPont Photomasks Inc. (NasdaqNM:DPMI - news), said on Monday said it was cutting 120 jobs. ``With recent economic indicators suggesting weakness in some sectors, companies that have had pent-up desire to make reductions in their general and administrative work force are leaping at the opportunity,'' said Stephen Unger, a managing partner at Heidrick and Struggles, the largest U.S. executive search firm. Later this year, as the effect of lower interest rates and tax cuts kick in, there could be some reacceleration, Wood said. ``But I don't think that it will be particularly robust,'' he said. Richard Wahlquist, vice president of the American Staffing Association, said he sees the cutbacks as more of a continuation of those in the first wave, rather than a new wave. He pointed out that while the number of people filing new claims for unemployment benefits -- 432,000 for week ending June 2 -- are the highest level in eight and a half years, the 4.4 percent U.S. unemployment rate is still one of the lowest rates in the world. ``Consumers can have an artificially heightened sense of the economy and the turnaround,'' he said in an interview. Paul Christopher, senior economist with A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc., said that while it may indeed be a new round of job cuts, it was already poised to subside. ``The thing to focus on is that it is fairly typical for the job market to see its worst drubbing six months after the peak in inventory. That peak was in October,'' Christopher said. That industry-wide job cuts have bled past the six-month marker into May and June -- though rarely is the economy so precise -- may signal an end in sight, he said.>>

To: limtex who wrote (37829)	6/14/2001 11:44:54 AM
From: RR	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

Hi Limtex! Been a few days. Hope you are well. Full blown recession you ask? No, I don't think so. Although, granted, some argue we're in a recession now and don't know it. Hard landing, so to speak, yes. Think we've already started to see that and will so more over the summer. Slowdown here, will be for the summer, and like I said last night, it's hitting closer to home now, down the food chain to the average person on the street. I'm seeing many more local businesses negatively impacted and hit in the last month. Forward guidance comments from second quarter will be critical. Execs will have more data to make better forecasts. Ought to be interesting. Think things will turn better in Q4 and Q1/2002. RR