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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chojiro who wrote (11134)	6/15/2001 10:48:47 AM
From: Bruce Brown	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12623

FWIW, I don't think it will be a matter of them "missing" numbers. I just believe in time this whole market is going to get readjusted on a valuation basis, and with CIEN carrying a TTM PE of over 225 as I type this, there is a lot of room for the down side. I wouldn't go by the TTM. Estimated EPS is .97 which puts the estimated PE at 41 using the current trading price which is not too far away from Home Depot's estimated PE. Of course, whether or not both Ciena and Home Depot make their estimated EPS for the forward 12 months remains to be seen in such an economic environment. The Uniphase warning certainly has increased the possibility of softness in Ciena's market. BB

To: chojiro who wrote (11134)	6/15/2001 11:06:45 AM
From: mact	Respond to of 12623

Does JDS Uniphase's Warning Suggest That Ciena's Earnings May be at Risk? Asks Thomas Kee of Stock Traders Daily SAN FRANCISCO, Jun 15, 2001 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- Stock Traders Daily, stocktradersdaily.com , has identified a correlation between the JDS Uniphase Corporation (Nasdaq: JDSU chart, msgs) warning and a potential warning from CIENA Corporation (Nasdaq: CIEN chart, msgs). After speaking with both companies, and with representatives of enterprise class carriers, the end users of each company's product, Stock Traders Daily has determined that the probability of a warning from Ciena appears significant. "Prior to the recent warning from JDS Uniphase the picture was much brighter for Ciena," says Thomas Kee of Stock Traders Daily. "Now that JDS has warned though, the outlook is much less clear." Ciena recently held an upbeat conference call at the Supercomm 2001 trade show, but they steered clear from reaffirming their earnings guidance. This is in accordance with company policy, because Ciena prefers not to discuss earnings during the middle of their fiscal quarter, but coupled with the JDS Uniphase warning, many investors are left with unanswered questions and concerns about earnings during the next few quarters. JDS Uniphase makes a variety of components over and above those that Ciena makes, but 65% of JDS Uniphase's revenues from the last nine months have been derived from the WDM, Switching, and thin film segment. This segment is in direct competition with Ciena, and this is what really has investors concerned. JDS Uniphase's clients are not the end users of their products, instead their clients are companies such as Alcatel, Nortel, and Lucent, and JDS Uniphase has said that these companies have been suggesting that the capital expenditures from the larger enterprise carriers, those same companies that are Ciena's direct clients, may be slowing. JDS Uniphase is seeing a sequential decline of 25% between their fiscal 4th quarter of 2001 and their fiscal 1st quarter of 2002 after a 14% reduction in their 4th quarter guidance. Because WDM and related products have been 65% of their revenues, investors have serious concerns that Ciena will be forced to succumb to industry slowdowns and they fear Ciena will be the next major optical networking company to warn.