Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Pump's daily trading recs, emphasis on short selling -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michail Shadkin who wrote (2263)	6/17/2001 12:24:31 AM
From: (Bob) Zumbrunnen	Respond to of 6873

I've followed THDO for many years and have played it well for the most part during that time, both long and short. I did sell "too soon" on Friday, though, and agree that it shouldn't be up here and will soon be a very strong short candidate. I don't see it getting below $3, though. $4, yes. And likely soon. Too much of a runup. I still have no idea why this happened but would expect that with Friday's volume, some of it was short-covering, so it likely doesn't have as much of a short position to provide fuel for more days like that. If they run out of money, Trip will just put more in like he's always done. I do keep asking myself just how deep his pockets are that he can afford to keep doing that though. If it can bust $6, I'll be shorting it too. But would cover in the low 4's, high 3's. It seems to have established a new trading range in the $3.60 to $4.20 area. As for Christmas being their make/break quarter, sadly that hasn't been the case. When they didn't get games out in time for Christmas last year, they said that consoles get bought for Christmas; games after Christmas. Sounded like rationalization to me. I think the coming two quarters will be upside surprises. Their games do seem to be selling, based on my unscientific check of local retailers. I expect them to make it to Christmas, possibly with another cash infusion from their CEO (I don't see the need for more cash as a strong likelihood), then not need it anymore, but (and this is a big BUT) only if XBox doesn't blow PSX2 out of the water, as THDO has no games for XBox and apparently never will. If XBox is a monster hit, short THDO and forget you ever did it. You'll never have to cover. All that said, I do agree with your short target, but not the exit target. $6 to $5 is a lock. $6 to $4 nearly so. $6 to sub-$3 could be a very long wait.

To: Michail Shadkin who wrote (2263)	6/17/2001 10:51:45 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6873

Michail any thoughts on CATS (not a play for now but a value play off the (august? bottom) as it is close to book value with not much of a burn rate and plenty of cash on hand). Horrible sector right now. CATS Catalyst products are used in telecommunications, networking systems, computation, industrial and consumer markets, driven by the Internet revolution. Typical applications include modems, network cards, PC BIOS, DIMM modules, cellular telephones, digital satellite box receivers, set-top boxes and Internet routers. Right now this is a nearly hopeless sector. ============================================================ But.... finance.yahoo.com notice the nice bounce off support at 4 up 4%. PE is 2.86. Cash (mrq*) $1.89 Mish likes cash Let's look at other stuff from Last quarter reports Revenues for the fourth quarter totaled $17.3 million, up 1% from revenues of $17.1 million in the fourth quarter a year ago. Net income for the quarter was $2.2 million, or $0.11 per diluted share, down 55% from $4.9 million, or $0.24 per diluted share, in the fourth quarter last year. On a sequential quarterly basis, revenue was down 27% and net income was down 69%. Fourth quarter results include inventory charges to the cost of sales of $1.6 million. Without these charges, earnings would have been $3.8 million or $0.19 per diluted share. The Company's balance sheet shows cash and cash equivalents of $30.5 million, a decrease of $2.1 million versus the previous quarter. The principal reasons for the decrease were the payment of the last installment of $5.0 million to Oki Electric resulting from a previously announced agreement and the financing of increased inventory. Stockholders' equity increased by $2.8 million during the quarter, to a total of $39.6 million as of April 30, 2001. ============================================================ It would appear they have a slow burn rate (perhaps no burn rate at all depending on further inventory writeoffs). I like the fact that whatever debt to OKI is now paid off. Any thoughts M

To: Michail Shadkin who wrote (2263)	6/17/2001 12:28:08 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6873

biz.yahoo.com Insider sales on HOMS is simply amazing. Stock really should be $5 (if not zero). thestreet.com Are institutions really this stupid? This is simply amazing to me. PUTs are expensive so not really recommended. If you are willing to short at 32 come hell or high water then you can sell naked JULY 30 calls for $1.70 with a very good liklihood of a 100% gain if they expire worthless. If not you will be short HOMS at 30 with a cushion of almost $2. Now if HOMS tanks all you get is $1.70 instead of whatever. The July 25 calls will yield $3.70 and protect you to about 28. finance.yahoo.com Is this a H&S formation? Support is a 20 so that would be a nice gain if it gets that far. One could also just short a few shares and forget about them. Interested in knowing how anone plays this. M

To: Michail Shadkin who wrote (2263)	6/17/2001 12:43:01 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6873

What is going on with GNSS? Amazing! Sell the JUL 30 calls? Genesis Microchip designs, develops and markets integrated circuits that manipulate and process digital video and graphic images. For the fiscal year ended 3/31/01, revenues rose 19% to $63.6 million. Net income fell 56% to $2.7 million. Revenues reflect increased demand for products in the flat panel LCD computer monitor market and an increase in units sold in the projections systems market. Earnings were offset by an increase in R&D costs. M