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To: jackrabbit who wrote (8772)	6/16/2001 6:36:49 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11568

Yes, I disagree. I think Ebbers is simply abandoning MCIT, and is giving no thought at all to the LT (or even medium-term) viability of the company. He tried and failed to create a "one-stop-shopping global solution" telco. Then, he tried and failed to find a buyer for his LT phone business. Now, he just wants out, any way he can, as long as it happens quickly, before industry conditions get even worse. Without a big dividend, there is no way MCIT can justify being born. All he wants to do is give birth to the baby, then he will abandon it. I know that sounds cynical and pessimistic, but that's the best explanation I can see for his actions. How long can the dividend be sustained? Notice, you (and everyone else) thinks the dividend will evaporate sooner or later. The debate is when, not if. So, everyone owning MCIT will be anxiously watching to see how quickly the sales and margins deteriorate; the stock will be held by speculators (not investors) who are all planning on taking advantage of the dividend, and then exiting before things get ugly. It's a variant of the Greater Fool method of investing. By definition, most "investors" playing that game are Greater Fools. It's a mathematical impossibility for more than a small fraction of them to get out anywhere near the top, or even with their capital intact. Actually, I see this as a good stock to play shortterm games with, range-trading. The dividend will (for a while) put a floor under the stock. I have no idea how long they can sustain the dividend, but I doubt 3 years. Sales and margins in LD phone have been deteriorating faster than expected, the rate of decline seems to be accelerating. The fact that everyone knows the business model is not viable longterm, puts a cap on the stock price. That ensures that all rallies in the stock will fail, sooner or later. The uncertainty, and the fact that there are no "strong hands", no longterm investors, holding the stock, will make it volatile. Here's a strategy: wait a while after it starts trading, till it seems to have established a range. Buy when the stock is at the bottom of that range, when the dividend is at least 10%, and 15% is not unlikely. Sell any 50% rally, and wait for a retrace. Do not think of MCIT as an investment, or a Value stock, or safe.