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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: American Spirit who wrote (78855)	6/16/2001 9:19:27 PM
From: Alex MG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

>>>longer term you have to be optimistic from these teensy prices.<<< teensy prices? Compared to what?... You might want to factor in a little historic valuation to your optimism. As for the short term: "The arguments for a short term bounce are as follows: TRIN and OTRIN (the Nasdaq version of the indicator) are bullish. The volatility/sentiment indicator VIX has reached the top of its ST regression channel and, since it's an inverse indicator, any turn down from the top channel line would be accompanied by a rise in the market. All three major market indexes (Dow, S&P, Nasdaq) are ST oversold and back at the bottoms of their ST regression channels. And while violating support at the 2000 level intraday Friday, the Naz managed to climb back above it on a closing basis. The vast majority of sector indexes are similarly short term oversold and at the bottoms of their ST regression channels. But the fun, if we do indeed get it, isn't likely to last long. There are equally compelling technical signs that we'll see much lower prices in the intermediate term, sometime between now and summer's end. VIX and VXN (the Nasdaq version of VIX) are at the bottom of their intermediate term (IT) regression channels. Both weekly stochastics and weekly DMI are giving new crossover buy signals on the VIX and are about to do the same on the VXN. And the MACD histogram for both VIX and VXN has ticked up while below the zero line, usually a reliable IT buy trigger. Remember, these are inverse indicators. Their buy signals are market sell signals. On the Nasdaq IT chart, weekly MACD is just starting to break down and weekly stochastics is flashing a crossover sell signal. The Dow has dropped back below its 200 DMA and it, too, is registering a stochastics crossover sell on the IT chart while the MACD histogram falls. And the weekly chart for the S&P shows a histogram that has topped and is falling, while stochastics is giving a crossover sell signal. In sum, we could/should see a short term bounce, one that may take us into, and perhaps through, the two-day Fed meeting of Feb. 26-27. But unless you're in it strictly for the short term, such a rally will be best used for selling rather than buying. My current support/resistance levels on the major market indexes are Dow 10540-10910, S&P 1207-1321, and Nasdaq 1995-2265." N. Proffit

To: American Spirit who wrote (78855)	6/16/2001 9:28:02 PM
From: puborectalis	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

One year from now you're gonna kick yourself for not buying into the telecom sector...love NOK,JDSU,TXN,SEBL,XLNX and VRTS

To: American Spirit who wrote (78855)	6/16/2001 10:49:39 PM
From: High-Tech East	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

<<Analyst on CNN states they expect 4th Q earnings to be 7% above last year>> ... until just recently, that is the kind of stuff they were predicting for Q2 and Q3 2001 ... (and only about 2 months ago) ... ... in 3 months (mid-September), they will probaby be saying the same thing about Q2 of 2002 ... (after Q4 starts to look like it will not meet expectations) ... ... also ... check out this week's "Forbes Magazine" - there are several articles that come very close to telling the real truth about analysts, brokerage houses, the economy and the media ... amazing ... forbes.com forbes.com forbes.com Ken Wilson

To: American Spirit who wrote (78855)	6/17/2001 2:53:28 AM
From: Steve Lee	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

"Ones I like now are NOK, PALM, ERICY and EMC based on their sharp falls" I don't place much importance on the sharpness of the falls as a factor pointing to imminent ascent. More important is to look at valuations relative to earnings, and whether investors are buying the stock. I don't hold much hope for any stocks in that list based on those criteria. What is the average forward PE of those stocks? How do you think their earnings will grow over the next few yeas? (Apart from the fact they are all selling commodity goods)