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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (48044)	6/17/2001 10:16:47 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

IMHO, it is a non-event. We know it will not be a net negative for the economy since more money is in the hands of consumers. However, will it be a positive event or a non-event, as you seem to think? Given that families with children should get back an average several thousand dollars per year, I do not see how you can claim that it will be a non-event. At the VERY LEAST, it will be psychological boost that people have more money coming to them and may be less inhibited in purchasing a new MP3 player or the such. But the $300 and $600 rebates are just the tip of the fiscal iceberg. enquirer.com Excerpt: Mike and Michele Sherman might save as much as $6,300,* or 22 percent of their 2000 tax bill, from the fully phased-in breaks — as long as they don't fall victim to the Alternative Minimum Tax.* As an aside Jay, I do not understand how you could have gone from being so Bullish a year or two ago, to be super Bearish now, AFTER we have seen a decline of 60-90% for most technology companies. Do you believe that the end of the road is upon us for technology? Are we all headed back into caves and using the abacus? And using words like bullsh** do absolutely nothing to help me see your point of view FWIW. BK

To: orkrious who wrote (48044)	6/17/2001 1:05:58 PM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Jay, 39 billion dollars is the total of the rebate checks going out starting next month. Some folks think $300/$600 is a big deal. Sure one day congress may revoke some or all of the cuts, who knows. But they cant get the 39 billion back and that money will be spent. If you don't want yours, return it to Uncle Sam or donate it to charity. Mike

To: orkrious who wrote (48044)	6/18/2001 7:07:12 PM
From: mitch-c	Respond to of 70976

OT - Tax Rebate: The total rebate IS close $39 billion. A little Fermi SWAG, here: Population (last Census): Approx 280 million. Assume a third pay taxes: 93 million taxpayers. Assume an average rebate higher than the minimum - $400. $400 * 93 million = $37,200 million, or about $37 billion. Close enough to make me confident in the number, especially given variations in # of taxpayers, $ per taxpayer, etc. I think my off-the-cuff estimates are low on both variables. Fermi considered his answers correct if he landed in the same order of magnitude as the real number. This SWAG came out less than 10% away from the publicized number. - Mitch