To: John Paquet who wrote (50263 ) 6/17/2001 10:11:54 PM From: Rocket Red Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 62348 Bottom Falls Out for Fibre Stocks Steve Maich The Financial Post Friday, June 15 Any hope the fibre-optics sector had already bottomed out evaporated yesterday in what one analyst is calling the "nuclear winter" of 2001. JDS Uniphase Corp. [T.JDU] delivered its latest profit warning after the market's close, but the outlook had already dimmed earlier in the day when Merrill Lynch [MER] analyst Steven Fox slashed his sales and earnings forecasts for fibre-optics bellwether Corning Inc. [GLW] to below his previous "worst-case" scenario. Even worse, he advised that his new estimates may still be too high. Analysts said the sector's prospects have fallen dramatically in just the past few months and JDS and Corning are not alone. "This whole sector was overfinanced, overbuilt and overhyped." "It goes right down the line from equipment makers like Nortel Networks Corp., to components makers like JDS Uniphase to the fibre makers like Corning," said analyst Gabriel Lowy at Credit Lyonnais in New York. "This whole sector was overfinanced, overbuilt and overhyped." Corning shares fell US$1.35 to a new 52-week low of US$16, after earlier touching US$15.97. JDS dropped US37¢ in regular trading, and another US$1.56 after hours. In a bad day for tech stocks, the Nasdaq composite dropped 3.7%, while Nortel [T.NT] hit a fresh 52-week low of $16.12 before closing at $16.23. JDS dropped its forecast for sales in the fourth quarter ending June 30 by US$100-million to US$600-million. Instead of a profit of US5¢ a share, it is looking at a loss of US6¢ to US8¢. Earlier, Mr. Fox cut his intermediate-term rating on Corning stock to "neutral" from "accumulate," blaming "extraordinarily weak demand" for the fibre-optic cables that make up about 25% of the company's sales. "We think the stock will, at best, tread water over the near term. Corning's fibre business is about to take a turn for the worst that is beyond our extremely conservative outlook." Many investors thought fibre optic companies would continue to perform relatively well through the telecom downturn largely because of their huge order backlogs. In 2000, Corning shares rose 28% even as the Nasdaq tumbled 39%. This year has been a rude awakening as companies have burned through their order book and new contracts have been scarce. Corning shares are down 70% this year; the Nasdaq is down 17%. This year has been a rude awakening as companies have burned through their order book and new contracts have been scarce. Mr. Fox reduced his 2001 earnings forecast to US75¢ a share, from US85¢ and said the prices Corning charges for its fibre-optic cables will decline 20% this year. Demand for the cables, which beam voice and data signals around the world on hair-thin strands of glass, has plummeted in North America and Europe this year as telecom companies scale back network improvements to cope with a slowing economy, he said. The new forecasts are well below projections released by the company in April, which call for 2001 profit of US90¢ to US$1 a share, and percentage price declines in the mid-single digits. Mr. Lowy said he still thinks there's a chance Corning could meet the low end of its 2001 earnings guidance, but he also thinks profits could slip as low as US65¢ a share if demand continues to slide. That would be almost 50% below the US$1.23 per share Corning earned last year. "The situation we're seeing now is that all three of the markets that represent 95% of the telecom spending -- North America, Europe and Asia -- are all in the tank or heading into the tank," he said.