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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (5089)	6/18/2001 11:24:48 AM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

He also lists two biotechs he knows little about, almost like Micheal Murphy's "gowth flow" model... if investments are being made they MUST be productive right? DAK

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (5089)	6/18/2001 4:04:13 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<Oh, and you might note that they happen to store their value in something denominated by this "money" you disdain.> I fancy myself as a stock market predictor [that's what we are when choose to hold stocks, or cash, or gold for that matter]. So I try to predict what's going to happen rather than what is actually happening. The further ahead I can predict, the better. Once I get out about 30 years, I find myself estimating rather than seeing a perfectly defined world. I'm trying to shine my crystal ball up so that it gives perfect definition 1000 years out, but it seems to be very murky indeed from about 2040. In the meantime, I notice that QUALCOMM also has a stack of cash [albeit a lot smaller than MSFT's]. I notice also that people who hold stacks of cash tend to be prudent. Prudent people tend to do well, in the long run, though they can look a bit stolid when speculation fever and mutually inflationary puffballs are rampant. I'm okay with money for now. In any sense of the word. Even the Kiwi is okay these days [having had been deflated with a whoosh, from US70c to US40c over a couple of years. Things are so cheap here, that it's tempting to think the US$ must come down. But, for decades and decades and decades, the voltage between places like USA and India and Japan and China have remained stable. By that I mean that an American can take their money to India and buy stuff really cheap. They work for a few dollars a day [and less]. You'd think that the money would flow downhill, fast, in accordance with the difference in earnings - better to pay somebody $1 a day than $100 an hour. But no, the US and Japan and other wealthy countries, because of political restrictions in the poor countries, continue to pay themselves huge incomes. So, the answer is that people try to leave the poor countries to work in the rich ones. They also invest in the rich countries. We ship our money to the USA and buy USA companies. Those companies go on attracting the talent from around the world, like a giant black hole. It's because of property rights, laws, a solid constitution where the President gets impeached and jailed if necessary. I'm not at all sure the US$ is going to do a 30% crash any time soon. Especially when oil comes back down to earth. Alternatives to oil are now economic and oil will lose market share. I better go check my crystal ball instead of just making this up. Mqurice PS: At least we agree on how to spell money, even though we disagree on what it means.