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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (78935)	6/18/2001 10:55:15 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Seems ORCL news was priced into everything but ORCL itself. Or perhaps ORCL sells off tomorrow to lead the pack down. Is good news now bad news? You can bet that the analysts that were negative on Oracle before the earnings will still be negative; I believe one or two had expected them to issue profit warnings. If they change their minds, they will look kind of stupid.<g> The days of Reg FD are going to make a lot of fools out of lots of analysts but these guys are going to be stubborn as well...especially as the market is going nowhere fast anyways. I would think it had a better chance to lead the market lower, had we not seen 7 straight days of declines on the Nasdaq...but you never know. Oracle comments seem to be quite positive for later in the year. It adds support to what Intel had been saying in its mid quarter meeting. By itself, Intel's comments were being dismissed as garbage by the bearish semiconductor analysts. If more and more companies made positive comments, it becomes more believable and maybe even more likely to happen...that could create the turning point for the market. If that recovery story is believed, it would be more likely to lift the Nasdaq past that 2300 resistance level the next time it gets close. Maybe the business recovery does not translate into a significant move in the market in a post-bubble period....who knows. I am open to that possibility as well. For now, I am optimistic on the prospects of a near term Nasdaq rally leading into earnings season. Planning on adding more and more tech stocks in the next several days heading into July. Might be time to take more aggressive long positions and that is what I am in the process of doing. Having a few cheap puts is not a bad idea just in case I am wrong. It might also be time to short oil stocks. The list of potential disasterous earnings warnings in technology is getting smaller. The potential for upside surprises may become a focus of the market as we head into earnings. JMHO.