To: robert b furman who wrote (48136 ) 6/19/2001 3:01:39 PM From: John Trader Read Replies (2) | Respond to Future Growth in Tech: Robert, Regarding those Rbocs, I think at some point there will be a fire built under them to get moving faster, but I don't know when this will happen. If boomers can afford huge houses, fancy, gas-guzzling automobiles, and Starbucks double-grande mocha's (or however you say it), then I think they will want high speed web access. Once you have it, it is kind of like having running water for the first time, you don't want to give it up. Applications will be a factor of course. For example I predict the local video rental stores will go the way of the buggy whip at some point. I don't know how this turns out, but maybe at some point some independent companies start running their own lines to houses and also to the more expensive apartment complexes, bypassing the Robocs. Is this possible? Maybe someone can comment on this. I have a friend who would probably climb the telephone poles himself if he were allowed to run a high-speed line to his house. I think it may be like a dam breaking at some point. It is crazy to think that technological progress such as Moore's Law would be significantly impacted by some local bureaucrats instead of some hard physical limitation (~10-20 years out?). We need bandwidth growth I think to make use of chips now - just look at PC's, they are really only used to connect to the web these days, and if the connection speeds don't increase, who is going to upgrade their PC? Even wireless growth hinges on web access improving. Boeing is getting into the technology of hooking up web access on airplanes. I work in the aircraft business and know that they are very cost conscious regarding additions to aircraft. I think they are betting right. Also, look at INTC, they are moving into communications chips to get new revenue, so either they are making a dumb move (communications chips directly tied to the growth of bandwidth) or else bandwidth growth will be the driver. So, what I am saying is if the growth in bandwidth slows down significantly as some are suggesting, we are all out of luck, even AMAT investors. If the Rbocs don't have the cash to upgrade their "last-mile" connections, maybe they will get bought out at some point by companies that are able to raise the cash. I think capitalism will prevail over incompetence, and I think high bandwidth web connections will be demanded by consumers at some point, hopefully soon.
