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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (48198)	6/19/2001 6:12:26 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Strong sequential growth expected in second half SCOTTSDALE, Ariz.--The unprecedented rapid decline in the first quarter of this year makes it even more likely that sequential growth will begin in the third quarter. That fearless forecast comes from Bill McClean, president of IC Insights. The 15% sequential decline in IC unit volume shipments in the first quarter is "strong evidence that a massive inventory burn was well underway," he says. After further inventory reduction in the second quarter, IC Insights believes the third quarter will show a "structural" rebound with sequential growth in both IC units and dollar volume. Despite potential improvements in the second half of 2001, this year will go down in the record books as one of the worst ever for the IC business. IC Insights on Monday also cut its forecast for integrated circuit revenues to show a 21% decline this year to $139.2 billion from $177 billion in 2000 (see June 18 story). The average percent semiconductor content of electronic systems sales is around 19-to-20%, but it ran below that in the first quarter. After reaching a low point of 16.2% in the first quarter, IC Insights expects semiconductor content to move up to about 18% in the fourth quarter. This upward move will come, McClean says, because of the elimination of the vast majority of IC inventory by early in the third quarter. Because of this increase in the chip content of systems, McClean says, "the IC market has the potential to display strong sequential quarterly growth in the second half of 2001 even without a significant increase in electronic system sales." McClean believes the first-quarter IC market displayed the worst sequential quarterly decline in the history of the IC industry. The quarter declined 21%, more than twice the average rate (9%) of the 10 worst quarterly market declines since 1980, he notes. The first quarter market also registered the worst sequential quarterly decline of IC unit volume shipments in history, McClean notes, falling at more than twice the average rate of the 10 worst quarterly IC unit volume declines since 1980. But his optimism comes from historic data that shows IC unit volume shipments going up sequentially two quarters after the big decline. And three quarters after each of the top 10 largest declines, unit volume averaged a gain of 5% sequentially.

To: Gottfried who wrote (48198)	6/20/2001 12:48:10 AM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried and threaders, following is the BTB data from 1991 for your reference. Gottfried has this data in graph form. What month do we reach the lows. Anyone want to guess. Compare the bookings for these months. Does anyone have a source showing the bookings and shipments going back to 1991? Paul YEARS MTH 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 JAN 1.23 1.09 1.12 1.17 1.32 1.28 1.08 0.93 1.12 1.39 0.8 FEB 1.12 1.2 1.15 1.13 1.41 1.36 1.07 0.9 1.22 1.44 0.71 MAR 0.91 1.13 1.12 1.07 1.3 1.15 1.15 0.82 1.33 1.46 0.59 APR 0.92 1.02 1.18 1.05 1.23 1 1.1 0.78 1.28 1.36 0.42 MAY 0.93 0.93 1.2 1.02 1.11 0.87 1.09 0.81 1.24 1.29 JUN 0.96 0.9 1.22 1.16 1.18 0.87 1.07 0.74 1.21 1.27 JLY 0.93 0.92 1.19 1.2 1.08 0.76 1.12 0.65 1.11 1.22 AUG 0.92 0.94 1.14 1.21 1.05 0.71 1.1 0.57 1.09 1.23 SEPT 0.94 0.98 1.02 1.03 1.02 0.7 1.09 0.57 1.07 1.17 OCT 1.01 1.01 1.03 1.12 1.07 0.78 1.05 0.75 1.09 1.16 NOV 0.96 1.03 1.05 1.19 1.06 0.9 1.02 0.84 1.11 1.12 DEC 0.98 1.08 1.19 1.29 1.15 1.01 0.99 0.96 1.19 0.99