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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (32902)6/20/2001 2:00:21 AM
From: Nancy  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 69592
 
Harry,

i dont know if williams is being honest or not.

i saw Qwest ceo being interviewed on cnbc - he flatout said those dark fibre will not be lit. there are more than enough capacity to meet demand in the forseable future. he even said that if he made a $1 mistake (by putting extra fibre) he is not going to use $2 to correct that mistake.
Qwest probably is the better run telco out there and joe naccio is well respected in his industry. i find it interesting that he doesn't make any excuse on this fibre glut issue.



To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (32902)6/20/2001 2:05:34 AM
From: Nancy  Respond to of 69592
 
P.S. i went to yahoo quote to compare wcg and q prices (dont follow them) and immediately i feel i would trust q ceo more than wcg ceo. charts dont lie.



To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (32902)6/20/2001 3:24:57 AM
From: Johnny Canuck  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 69592
 
TLAB June 19,2001 Pre-warning CC:

After first 2 months save more pronounced order deferrals.

Carriers are cautious and going to a just in time model for ordering. Trying to conserve cash.

End user demand remains high. Carriers using excess demand reserved for large customers to absorb incremental demand in bandwidth. [Do they have that much capacity or or customer not requiring the quality of service????]

Expect 500 mil in rev for Q2.

Lnnger term they see more challenging Q's ahead.

Market share intact.

Starting to ship new 6000 series products. Q2 will see the first rev from Titan 6700. Interest in the 6000 products is strong.

Outside the US, company is performing well/

Q2 guidance excluding 262 mil in charges announced in last Q.

Rev 500 mil = 210 mil in optical networking products, 150 mil in Broadband products, 40 mil in voice quality products, 100 mil in professional services

Gross margin 40 percent

Stable pricing on all products.

Op Ex $225 mil down from the $240 mil in previous guidance.

Pro Forma EPS $0.00.

Non Pro-Forma loss of 45 cent per share.

Rest of year, not giving guidance.

Seeing benefits of cost reductions last Q.

Q) Any of $210 mil in optical networking products from 6500?

A)Yes. 6500 and 6100 made up $13 mil.

Q)Still shipping 6500 to only one customer?

A) Recognizing rev from only one customer. Shipped to more than one.

Q)Long term model? Profitable by end of 2002 or 2003?

A) Plan for model of 30 percent rev and 30 percent EPS growth. Feel good about 6000 product line.

Q) Anymore write offs beyond $262 mil already?

A) No.

Q) When will TLAB be profitable? End of 2002? 2003?

A) Expect before 2002. Strongly feel so.

Q) Where is the spending coming from? ILEC's or others? Linearity in the Q?

A) Mostly of buying from large customers as expected. CLEC's still soft. CLEC's seeing more financial pressure as noted in press.

Traditionally have seen a huge spike in the last month of Q. Did not see it this time. Wireless business helf up well. International business came in as planned. No softtness there. Getting our share of reduced spending.

Q) On Titan 5500 sales. Model suggest weakness their. Selling more chasises, additional deployments or new deployments?

A) Evenly spread in all categories. Pull back in plugs too. Traditionally, carriers will order and not turn up the system for 3 to 5 months. So pattern is similar from past.

Q) Comparing IXC's and RBOC's? More weakness for RBOC's.

A)Even across teh board. Demand for 6500 in local exchange demand is good.

Q) More detail in linearity?

A) Compared to previous Q, usually month 1 up, month 2 modestly up, month 3 huge spike. This Q, month 1 up slightly, month 2 down, month 3 only a modest up tick. Saw many customers order and then push out installation or reduce orders.

Q)Expenses going forward?

A)Expect $225 mil range, but not giving guidance.

Q)Did the trend to push out order accelerating in the Q?

A)No. Even pattern.

Q) Head count now? More reduction?

A) 8000. Will not talk about other lay offs. No new hires.

[In general the call was not as bad as portrayed. New prodcts should reduce rev errosion. Demand from international not falling off yet. Wireless still growing as per other calls such as NT.]