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To: K. Bloomquist who wrote (1691)	6/20/2001 3:26:18 PM
From: gbh	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3294

Joe Nacchio, CEO of Qwest, was on CNBC the other day and stated that Q had laid 48 fiber strands across the US. And that 8 were currently being utilized.

To: K. Bloomquist who wrote (1691)	6/20/2001 4:45:11 PM
From: OWN STOCK	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 3294

K Bloomquist: First, there is domestic / EU situation and then there is the Asian issue. Domestic and EU there is the existing capacity issue. That means already lit lines. The number varies widely between the various vendors...the big boys run from 10% to 60% of existing capacity utilized...at the presently accepted rate of growth of 100%/year, that means six months for some, and longer for others....until they have to light more lines. Lighting more lines will take more equipment in the form of (at least) transmitters and receivers of different colors to do the WDM-thing, and they whole banana (amplifers and splitters) in others. There is about a three month to six month inventory of equipment just sitting there....some of it at the telecoms, some of it at the equipment vendors. OTOH, there is about a sixth month lead time to between ordering and receiving new equipment...so I expect to see some domestic / EU orders trickling into NT etal in about six months, coincident with the capacity reaching 100%, but before their inventory runs out...then about three to six months later, some stronger component sales...due to lead times of about 90 days...etc... Asian: The market is growing explosively...like a delayed version of our domestic bubble...I expect to see some good pick up of sales volume there in the next year...the only thing is it is presently small compared to domestic/EU sales... -Own