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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tekboy who wrote (43739)	6/21/2001 12:12:09 PM
From: Dr. Id	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Moreover, many of us have found that an LTB&H-oriented perspective has the added advantages of reducing the number of decisions we have to make correctly in order to profit and reducing the negative impact of emotional volatility (the well-known fear/greed cycle) on our portfolios. This idea of the reduction of the number of decisions that we have to make as an advantage... It is a nice premise, but I wonder... Have we seen the fallacy of this kind of thinking in the past year? We have gone on the premise that we are identifying good companies and investing for the long haul without thinking about macro economics... Isn't that what has cost most of us the huge gains that we made in the last two years (most of which are GONE)? I'm not sure that I have an answer to how one uses macro information to help in selling decisions, but I think that we operate with blinders on if we continue to ignore the mistakes that we all made in the last year. And not to beat a dead horse (which I think is alive and well here), but we still need to watch for groupthink on this thread... Id

To: tekboy who wrote (43739)	6/21/2001 12:25:55 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

Thanks Techboy, I call myself an investor. Value? Yes. But even more importantly Value at a Reasonable Price. I view the G&K strategy as fitting within such a framework, as opposed to standing beside it or in place of it. What you have here is an excellent methodology for identifying and selecting a minimum number of equities from which to populate a tech/growth basket. Which in my case fits within my overall portfolio along with my bond basket and my dividend basket and so on. I am trying to have my capital working for me to provide income and grow and prosper. No mistake about it I have LTB&H bias. What the methodology appears to be missing is an itempotent decision making criteria around which to say "should I invest another dollar here, or elsewhere or nowhere". It pre-supposes, that such a decision is the right decision and has already been made and then goes about identifying the gorilla to which the dollar should flow. The events of the last 18 months should bring a fatal flaw of this methodology to light. Mostly, and particularly in a bull market, it is right. But often, as in a bear market, it can be the wrong decision. Investing is not about buying a slice at any price. It is about anticipated returns. Those who had the luxury of being the G&K originals more than 2 years ago are fine, but the well meaning advice of some of the crusty venerables here led many newbies to hold gorillas at prices that appear now, in hindsight, to be rediculous. Maybe they will go back up. Maybe a covered call strategy will nurse them back to profitability. I ask the thread to imagine the value of a tool that would have saved these new folks so much grief. Allowed them to own these gorillas. But not at the price they paid. Merely adjusting the strategy of ownership from "must invest" to "invest at the right price". To think that maybe one of the pieces of most sage wisdom missing from this thread back then was "son, now's not a good time". I will close now and say that such a tool does exist. John.