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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (18522)	6/21/2001 7:52:39 PM
From: Paul A	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

MU is actally trading at 35 1/2 right now.. So, covering at this point is smart because... we are at a bottom? Just not quite sure why folks are putting a positive spin on these numbers.. but if tomorrow is the bottom in the semis/nasdaq decline then hats off to you bulls! you deserve it! ...I still think the market has lost complete touch with reality.. but I wont fight it if they push her higher thats for certain.. Nasdaq 2500 by end of next week! how about that for a prediction? Ill gladly take the loses on my shorts in return for the side splitting laugh ill get watching the buy and sell game continue.. After all, up is the only way! dontcha know?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (18522)	6/21/2001 7:59:20 PM
From: Alex MG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Nothing good about that BTB report... The CEO of SEMI (which collects the data) noted that while the book/bill rose, both orders and shipments fell again, and he says that sustained year/year improvement is probably 3-4 quarters away. Perhaps the most vivid depiction of the semi equipment sector's woes can be seen in this string of orders numbers: Dec $2.37B, Jan $1.85B, Feb $1.61B, Mar $1.20B, Apr $723, May $704M. That's a 70% decline in just five months, and as of May, orders were still falling. MU had no good news either... severe pricing pressure, high inventory levels and no sign of a broad recovery on the horizon.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (18522)	6/21/2001 8:05:41 PM
From: Rick Storm	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Zeev, according to the revised figures, the rate of billing decline was 9%, while booking rate of decline was 3%-- Do you think that the slowing decline of bookings is a positive sign -- in 98 when the summers btb numbers were even for two months, when amat started to rise in price (after the second month); do you remember if the rate of bookings decline had started a slower decline than billings-- Boy, I hope this question is clear to you, because as I write, I am becomming more confused<G>

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (18522)	6/21/2001 9:45:24 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Jay, if you are still short MU, you may want to consider covering some on the early sell off tomorrow. $42 to $35/36 is not too shabby. Thanks. I covered all of my semi equips and MU yesterday (MU at 36 and change). I thought I might be able to hold MU through earnings but with the BtB on the same night I figured why press my luck. It was a very nice trade <G>. I am hoping for some positive early spin to get back into the semi equips. Jay

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (18522)	6/21/2001 11:07:24 PM
From: dwayanu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30051

Zeev, re BTB ... bookings would stabilize around the $750 MM level ... Given that the bookings figure is a trailing 3 month average, and given the very large drop in the average for April but the very small drop for May, I think that forces May's raw bookings to be much larger than April's. For example: Month Raw Bookings 3-Mth Avg --------- ------------ ----------- Dec 2,000 Jan 1,600 Feb 1,200 1,600 Mar 800 1,200 Apr 175 725 May 1,125 700 Is there a source of the raw monthly figures available? Couldn't find it at semi.org - Dway