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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tinkershaw who wrote (74796)	6/22/2001 12:31:01 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

>>From my calculations, at this pace, Micron has about 4-6 quarters of life if nothing changes (of course they'll try to issue more stock or take out loans).<< i wish! ;-) bilow is biased. the question is whether he is biased toward the truth or not and that is open to some honest debate - i'll agree with that. my paradigm is that computers are already good enough with sdram for 95% of application. few people will pay much for barely any improvement (i can't type faster on si with a 2 ghz box!). if ddr was expensive, i'd nix it and say sdram would hang on for a long time. imho, it is no more complex than basic econ 101 - cost / benefit. i view intel as a one trick pony. they view increasing speed as the key to more sales b/c it worked in the past. however, the game is changing faster than intel's best minds, imho. we shall see. my guess is that inexpensive and good enough wins over expensive with barely noticeable gains on 95% of apps. i have read some articles that cast doubt on rdram's supposed edge in speed. i also gotta say, rmbs management makes micron management look halfway decent. that isn't a good thing ;-) be sure to separate personality conflict from stock analysis. best of luck. skeets.

To: tinkershaw who wrote (74796)	6/22/2001 1:06:24 AM
From: Ali Chen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

"the point of my post was more about Bilow...Which is what good honest discussion is all about. " Incidentally, I could not find your answer to Bilow's reply, Message 15967304 Having problems with a "good honest discussion", or what? - Ali

To: tinkershaw who wrote (74796)	6/22/2001 3:47:10 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Hi tinkershaw; Re: "Bilow won't answer the simplest of questions if it may be pro-Rambus, like the question I posed, or how about RDRAM is selling for less than SDRAM was last year at this time sort of thing" Actually, I've answered this repeatedly. It's simply ridiculous to compare the price of two products at different times. A year ago, you couldn't buy RDRAM at current prices, nor could you buy SDRAM at current prices. So why are you comparing current RDRAM prices to those SDRAM prices? The fact is that SDRAM has maintained a price advantage over RDRAM for 2 years and it's not going to change. What more of an answer do you want? As far as Micron canning their chipset projects, this is hardly an indication that DDR is dead. If it is, then you must think that RDRAM is dead because Intel canned the Timna project. Let's get back to basics here. There is only one company (Intel) making RDRAM compatible x86 chipsets, or planning to make them, and the chipsets they are planning to make, or have been making, are as follows: Intel RDRAM chipsets 82820 (Camino) 82840 (Carmel) 82850 (Tehama) ????? (Tulloch) 82860 (Colusa) That's all there is, at least as far as x86 chipsets go. (Somewhat arbitrarily, both in the lists of RDRAM and DDR chipsets, I've listed only variants that differ in the North Bridge. Consequently, I only leave off the Intel 820e, as it uses the same North Bridge as the 820, and the same with the NVidia 220D and 420D.) Since there are only 5 North Bridges, having one of them (like Timna) cancelled, is a big deal. By comparison, here are the DDR North Bridges, including the Micron varieties: ALi M1651 (Aladdin Pro 5) M1651T (Aladdin Pro 5T) M1642 (?????) M1647 (ALi MAGiK 1) M1657 (ALi Aladdin K7 III) M1667 (?????) M1671 (????? for P4) AMD 761 (760) 762 (760MP) 770 (?????) IBM ????? (Summit) Intel 82845B? (Brookdale DDR) 82870? (?????) Micron ????? (Samurai DDR, Copperhead) ????? (Samurai K7) 4400e (Mamba) ????? (Shogun) NVidia Crush11 (nForce220) Crush12 (nForce420) Crush17 (?????) Crush18 (?????) ServerWorks ????? (Serverset IV) SiS 635 (635) 635T (635T) 640T (640T) 735 (735) 740 (740) 745 (745) 750 (750) VIA VT8633 (Apollo Pro266) VT8653 (Apollo Pro266T) VS10-P6 (PM-266T) VT8753 (P4X-266) ????? (P4M-266) VT8366 (KT-266) VS12-K7 (KM-266) You can see that losing 4 DDR North Bridges doesn't mean squat in terms of DDR's support for the x86. In fact, as I've said before, with this many companies competing in the same arena with this many products, it would be totally and completely unbelievable if they all turned out to be profitable and competitive. The mainstream is a very competitive place. That DDR is mainstream is indicated by the fierce competition that occurs there. The cheap price for DDR, as well as the long list of competitors above are strong indications that DDR is a mainstream arena for strong competition. RDRAM, by contrast, is a niche memory type, and is split into 6 different, incompatible, pinouts, and consequently is expensive. There is only one company making chipsets for RDRAM, or even planning to, and so those products are designed to not directly compete with each other. Despite that lack of direct competition, Intel had to kill Timna, and the 82820 is pretty much dead as well. That means that there are no single channel (read "cheap") motherboards for RDRAM, and that is what Dataquest meant when they said last year that RDRAM has been "relegated" to the high end. -- Carl P.S. Glad that you could see fit to contribute to the thread, it's been awfully quiet lately. Why has no one responded to the post where I demonstrated Samsung, Toshiba, and Elpida's dedication to DDR? ( #reply-15962808 ) My thesis is that these companies are mouthing the Rambus line, but selling as much DDR as they can, as it is obvious to them that DDR is the next mainstream memory. What do you think will happen to Rambus' stock price when they announce that they are no longer collecting royalties on DDR? Also, the PriceWatch figures are stuck on yesterday's values with no change. I think they're broken, so I'll skip today's update.