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To: Rarebird who wrote (72245)	6/23/2001 9:31:39 AM
From: long-gone	Respond to of 116796

Opinion for open markets & open investing failing worldwide(or is it because it was the Liberal Ted Turner?;) - Zing) Russian Duma Rejects Media Bill NewsMax.com Wires Friday, June 22, 2001 MOSCOW -- The State Duma, Russia's lower house of parliament, has rejected a controversial bill that would have limited foreign ownership of the media, but the chamber will return to the subject soon, leaving the fate of several media groups unclear. The Duma, which had earlier approved the nationalist-backed bill in a first reading in a successful attempt to thwart CNN founder Ted Turner's potential bid for the NTV television network, balked Thursday at passage (cont) newsmax.com

To: Rarebird who wrote (72245)	6/23/2001 9:35:18 AM
From: long-gone	Respond to of 116796

No, looks as if its trade wars for everyone everywhere worldwide: Friday June 22, 6:10 am Eastern Time ANALYSIS-Japan-China row may hurt 'New Japan', consumers By Yoko Nishikawa TOKYO, June 22 (Reuters) - China's millions of farmers and mighty Japanese automakers appear to be the losers in a new trade row between the giant neighbours. But it may not be so simple. The real losers could be innovative companies and patient consumers in Japan, whose interests have been ignored as politicians engage in a last-ditch attempt to protect long-coddled farmers from the realities of change in the world's second-largest economy. China and Japan have been locked in a festering trade row since April, when Tokyo imposed import curbs on cheap Chinese agricultural products in a bid to protect Japanese farmers, whose votes have helped to elect heaveyweight politicians. Japan says it imposed temporary ``safeguard'' curbs under World Trade Organisation rules, which preclude retaliation, on shiitake mushrooms, leeks and rushes for tatami mats to protect domestic industries from cheap imports. In retaliation against those curbs, China decided on Thursday to impose 100 percent tariffs on 60 varieties of products from a range of three classes of Japanese goods -- mobile phones, vehicles and air conditioners. The ratio of goods hit compared with total trade between the two countries is tiny, but the move highlights festering domestic policy issues for Japan's reform-minded new Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. UNPOPULAR SAFEGUARD STEPS China's retaliation immediately angered Tokyo policymakers and business leaders, including Japan's powerful automakers. But Tokyo's own decision to impose the safeguard curbs was not exactly good news for Japanese firms that have battled in recent years to adjust to structural change in Japan's economy -- specifically sourcing overseas to reduce costs. This has not only boosted profitability of firms such as low-priced restaurant chain Skylark that commissioned cheap leeks from Chinese farms. It has pleased consumers who can find attractive prices in a fragile economy plagued by deflationary pressures and hurt by their reluctance to loosen their pursestrings. ``In the short term, consumers will be the losers when prices of shiitake mushrooms rise,'' said Hisashi Yamada, an economist at the Japan Research Institute. And the bad news for consumers may continue if complaints from Japanese makers of bicycles, chopsticks, towels and socks about competition from cheap Chinese imports lead to yet more safeguard steps. Japanese consumers once favoured either products made at home or labelled with expensive brand names from Europe. That trend has begun to change in recent years, the shift fostered by an economy suffering from persistent deflationary pressure, a decade of stop-go growth and the improved quality of cheaper imports from Asia. INNOVATIVE FIRMS MAY SUFFER And firms have tried to adjust to that change. ``Japanese firms have been trying to survive by going to overseas markets and trying to produce goods there that fit the Japanese market,'' said Masaaki Suzuki, economist at Fuji Research Institute. Many firms were unhappy with Japan's decision to impose the safeguard curbs because of the damage to their marketing efforts and capital spending in overseas markets, he added. Firms such as Fast Retailing Co Ltd , parent of low-priced, hit clothes chain Uniqlo, have shaken slow-moving retail dinosaurs with cheaper innovative product lines by relying on imported clothes from China, where production costs are one-twentieth of those in Japan. A report by Fuji Research that surveyed some 800 firms showed on Friday that 43.4 percent of the firms said the safeguard steps were undesirable. Retailers especially opposed the tariffs. ``The mainstream of opinion said imposing temporary safeguard curbs would not be a fundamental solution when Japan is promoting structural reforms in the economy,'' the report said. Instead of protecting ``Old Japan'' sectors that have failed to catch the tide of economic change, Japan's government should try more aggressive steps to promote deregulation, competitiveness and innovation, said Yamada of Japan Research. ``The economic environment is changing all the time. Asian countries have been industrialising while Japan's technological level has been weakening,'' Yamada said. ``Japan needs to innovate new products,'' he said. ``Imposing safeguard curbs will not help the situation.'' biz.yahoo.com

To: Rarebird who wrote (72245)	6/23/2001 11:17:40 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 116796

Rarebird: One of the time bombs now ticking (and this has received very little coverage in the press) is the potential for serious money fund defaults if the economy continues to weaken. Given that so many see money funds as the equivalent of bank deposits, serious problems here could rock the financial system to its foundations. Here is a communication the subject I got recently from the folks at CONTRARY INVESTOR. "Hope all is well. Please excuse the more than tardy reply. We've been trying to collect info on this subject. One of the major problems is that the big risk seems to be caught up in "funding corporations". These wonderful obscure entities that turn water into wine. Repackage lower quality debt (asset backed and securitized-credit card-along with even junk debt) into acceptable MMF assets with the space age vehicles of derivatives and credit guarantee's. We did not go into it in detail in last night's look at derivatives in the banking system for 1Q, but the banks are big facilitators in this practice. The problem? No disclosure on the part of the funding corporations. We simply can't get publically available data on these miracle workers. For what it is worth, we are trying to assemble what we can and hope to come up with enough facts to support a discussion. It is truly a potential problem like never before. From a personal standpoint, all of our own MMF assets are in govt. only MMF's."

To: Rarebird who wrote (72245)	6/23/2001 1:35:32 PM
From: E. Charters	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116796

While it is clear that the tech/electronic sector is oversold and the Asian connection is weak, the inevitable crash in this sector which is in flux now, will not necessarily bring all traditional sectors down with it. I do also fear that worse is ahead. On a contrary note I would point out that business is evolving over the internet. It is plain that it has to become more secure. Fortunately to diffie-hellman tools to do this are here. Encrypted point to point tools that the feds cannot control can be widely implemented with ease. Trying to nail down every 256 bit or better key exporter using cheap random number lists as long as the message would be like trying to hold water in a seive. They cannot shut the internet nor put key exporters in jail. It is not practical. It is true too that much business that is not buy_this_ at_ my_ website drivel is being driven by the internet, but completed in traditional ways. You could multiply by 10 the dot com dollar figures that the stats boys print as dot-commerce and add it into the bundle. Most classifieds are now on the internet and homes and jobs have the majority of sourcing at internet sites. This is not trivial money. But traditional industry is still strong, despite cash crunch and high debt load. Bricks and mortar bricks and mortar industries may shore up the economy yet. Look for smokestack lightning. But in the midst of all this economic uncertainty a new golden age and a return to traditional value driven economic standards must be in the offing. I foresee cash flow projects gaining ground. Gas projects to generate in California have to be attractive. We know of a beautiful gas generation project in India that is looking for investors. How about small high grade gold mines? We know of a few that may pay. We are dying to get one project off the ground that has 3 times return in less than 9 months. E. Charters mailto:echarters@primus.ca

To: Rarebird who wrote (72245)	6/27/2001 12:09:31 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116796

Hello Rarebird, Thank You for your posts..., I've always found your thoughts of importance and clearly valuable, if I've not always agreed...<smile> As you know I'm a market timer and trade off timing signals..., the market can move in either direction and in any manner, but I will follow as far as my positions are concerned. Direction is only important..., so to be on the right side....! <smile> However..., I prefer being a buyer, (must be a personality flaw), but I have a slant towards capturing higher price runs. You are correct these timing tools use very little fundamentals and economic forecasting work ups..., I've actually found they are intrusive and counter productive. Often my time projections from days back will correspond to an event either market or media induced that marks turning points. Knowing what to do when you get there is the hardest part. But each year I work up broad scenarios that reflect a blend of my intuitive and intellectual perceptions, about the period going forward and they begin starting with the summer solstice. Here are a few of my thoughts. Everyone who's traded these markets is aware of greed and fear and the parabolic nature of charts that are involved with mania speculation..., the Nasdaq the most recent example. These markets are geared towards taking the publics money for redistribution. It is not an entirely honest occupation. Slowly the total power of the investment institutions is being democratized, but only for the most savvy individual traders. The mutual funds are a serious problem in this democratization process.., they are a wolf in sheep's clothing.., but with good intentions..., but they still take the publics money. The problem is that fund managers must sell on the demands of daily and weekly redemptions. Some can postpone the selling process through borrowing., but eventually they must sell and even sell their best holdings. Flip side..., most fund managers must also buy the hottest stocks to attract new money, higher ratings and this requires low cash levels. They are directly responsible for the snowball decline. But what we just experienced in the Nasdaq was not based on fundamentals, but on greed and fear. I believe the Nasdaq speculation was an isolated event..., however powerful.., and the markets have now returned to general conditions, with the Nas returning to a secondary Index. The residual effects are still being worked out, but will not cripple the economy. Market psychology seems to change every 2-3 years and a new "Mask" is now in place...! How to trade these markets doesn't change. Another factor is the Federal Reserve: "Technological change has deepsixed the old monetary theories without floating a new one." WSJ I believe Greenspan and the Fed, with their 1999-2000 rate increases were directly aimed at the parabolic asset Mania and then became complicated by the oil cartels pricing structure and the electricity problems of the west coast. These have increased the chances that we may face a longer period of economic congestion and slower activity. As a new sense of our monetary future evolves out of a changing Europe, changing Asia, USA working patterns and the savings patterns of Americans, we may find the outcome is different then the old theories of forecasting models might suggest. One scenario is a dramatic technological change in way this country deals with energy and a continued explosion of technological advances that keep this country ahead of the economies of the world. With inflation contained, and modest sustainable economic activity, but with a remaining problem of deflation. This also includes continuing democratization of the poorer people and the infusion of capital into their economies to create new markets for our goods. It is a very powerful and sustained level of prosperity that continues for another 20-30 years and into the old age of the 1945-50 generation. Another scenario fits your comments exactly...! >>I expect the Fed to continue to cut interest rates to the bone WITHOUT reviving the U.S. economy. That is the inevitable end result of this whole process. Just like Japan: it won't work this time ! The real economic problem is that the American public cannot handle an economic contraction or recession. Nor can they handle, a drastic fall in the stock market. That fact changes the economic problem into a financial problem. It is the major banks and it is other lenders, who have lent to the public all the money they now owe. That IS the financial problem. If the public were to start to go broke in significant numbers in an economic downturn, that event could crash the entire financial system.<< To me for this to happen and a great depression to unfold would take a "massive event" to trigger USA's unraveling. There is always that possibility..., but I do not believe the Nasdaq parabolic distribution of the publics wealth is "The Event." Perhaps this futurist is "Right." earthchanges.com Chip