When we're buying 20% of our power from out of state providers there is a shortage of power in CA. LA DWP had to go to Utah to get power generation, a huge coal plant. BPA was dependent on water levels to deliver the power they promised. A good market would be one with a 15-20% cushion to relieve price pressures from repairs and maintenance as well as natural gas price changes, also in a tight market at times. We didn't and still don't have that.
California Electrical Energy: Peak Demand and Sources
Dennis Silverman
California Energy Data
Peak Demand
Cal-ISO is a non-profit organization that controls 75% of the state's power grid.
During the winter from October through March, peak statewide Cal-ISO (California Independent System Operator) controlled demand is around
30-31,000 megawatts.
In the summer of June, July and August, the peak ISO controlled demand has been 37-38,000 megawatts.
At peak, Cal-ISO controls 45,000 megawatts. It is the second largest grid in the U.S. and the 5th largest in the world.
The ISO control areas exclude the LADWP control area resources of 8,200 megawatts and others of 1,200 megawatts peak.
California only has 1800 megawatts on contract for the Pacific Northwest for this summer, instead of the usual 3,000 to 5,000 megawatts.
The state has the capacity, with all plants operating, to generate 55,000 megawatts, according to the L.A. Times. (The most recent official database
lists plants with a gross capacity of 54,175 megawatts and an online capacity of 52,600 megawatts).
The April 16 editorial claims that the state could fall short of this by 3,000 to 7,000 megawatts.
This will of course depend on the temperature and conservation measures.
Forecasted Summer 2001 peak demand statewide ( 1 in 10 temperature probability, + 7% reserve, in megawatts) is 61,000. This will be met by
existing resources of 45,000 ISO, plus LADWP of 8,200, plus others of 1,200, plus 4,800 net imports including Pacific Northwest, minus
average expected outages of -3,000, plus new resources. The new resources are 1,300 approved, 1,300 restarted thermal and renewable, 1,100
ISO peaking facilities, and 1,000 emergency peaking facilities. (Why a 4,000 reserve? Source document no longer where I found it.)
On June 4, San Onofre's second reactor returned to full 1100 megawatt service. The total of inoperative power is down to 7,200 megawatts, from
earlier days where 13,000 megawatts was unavailable. About half of the downtime is planned, and half is unplanned.
About half of curtailed power is planned and half is unplanned outages.
(According to the Washington Post quoting state officials, the summer load peaks at 50,000 megawatts, exceeding the states' maximum generating
capacity of 45,000 megawatts, with the rest coming from out of state. These are consistent taking ISO control areas alone, excluding LADWP
and others.)
About one third of the potential energy in fuel emerges as usable electrical energy. That is divided nationally into about equal thirds in residential,
commercial, and industrial uses.
The average home uses 700 to 1,000 kwh per month (Edison).
PG&E serves 13 million people from 14,000 to 22,000 megawatts. It has 131,000 miles of electric lines, and 43,000 miles of natural gas pipeline.
Offline power in 1999 was about 5,000 megawatts in the winter (Feb.,M,A) and declined to 1,000 during the summer (J, J, A, S).
Offline power in 2000 was about 3,000 megawatts in the winter and 2,000 in the summer, but rose sharply in (O, N, D) to 8,000 to 10,000.
Offline power in 2001 has risen from 10,000 to 14,000 megawatts (J, F, M, A). (LA Times, May 12). The large offline amount has coincided
with the high price rises.
The North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) estimates up to 260 hours or blackouts this summer, whose average size will be 2150
megawatts. (Reuters, May 15)
NERC estimates the shortages may be 4500 to 5500 megawatts, as opposed to the state's projection of 2000 to 4000 megawatts.
On June 7, the unavailable power dropped to a new low of 4800 megawatts, about half planned and half unplanned.
Also on June 6, the highest cost of power on the Automated Power Exchange (below) was only $70 per megawatt hour, with a daily average of
$58 per megawatt hour.
As of June 1, only 600 megawatts of qualifying facility was out. |
