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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (11995)	6/24/2001 6:02:36 PM
From: carranza2	Respond to of 196986

Precisely. Many die-hards have for far too long refused to consider the possibility that WCDMA is here to stay. It is, at least in Japan, where it appears to be making some slow progress. Anyone who thinks that NoMoGo was going to roll out an on-time bug-free network on the first try or forever fail in its 3G plan is deluded. DoCoMo is already putting cash into Q's coffers. Perhaps barely enough to stock the company Coke machine, but you've got to start somewhere.

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (11995)	6/24/2001 6:03:20 PM
From: Drew Williams	Respond to of 196986

Ramsey, please allow me to remind the thread what Irwin Jacobs has said on several occasions: It does not matter what flavor it is, CDMA is CDMA. Qualcomm gets paid either way. The only thing that keeps IJ awake at nights is the worry that the wireless phone companies may choose to deploy their systems later rather than sooner.

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (11995)	6/24/2001 7:58:04 PM
From: foundation	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 196986

So instead of bashing Docomo and wcdma, we should be cheering for their success. ------------ First, I think objectivity is most preferable. And SK's recent decisions, in my view, speak volumes regarding NTT's wCDMA network's prospects in the short and mid term. Second, I don't think we should be "cheering" for wCDMA's success. At all. No doubt, Europe will maintain a death grip on UMTS prospects, to their imminent detriment. But Europe, the only region where wCDMA/UMTS is truly entrenched, is not the focus. And it's becoming less and less important what happens on Europe's shores. The prize is elsewhere. The prize is everywhere other than Europe. And Q's prospects only improve in these regions when wCDMA/UMTS falters. And wCDMA/UMTS success will not speed the construction of full-scale networks. wCDMA/UMTS success will only reinforce and confirm the viability of 3GSM evolution. Short and mid-term plans for UMTS networks are small scale, selected applications - and as much for bragging rights as function. 3GSM plans first include selected GPRS coverage for business data needs. Then plans call for widespread GPRS, including services targeted at consumers. Then for some there is EDGE for higher data rates - in targeted regions, as needed. (And NOK is pushing this much harder now for all regions.) Then there is small scale UMTS in selected regions for business. Then finally there is growing UMTS networks for consumers - in selected markets - as required.... Successful, bug-free wCDMA/UMTS technology tomorrow will not alter this map - only assist in confirming its viability - and strengthen the confidence of carriers wed to the evolution. (Of course, GPRS is throwing a wrench into the works now as well, compelling NOK to pull HSCSD out of bowels of its closet.) But there is Asia (aside from NTT), Latin America, and India to win, and the US to secure. To suggest that it's preferable to have wCDMA functioning sooner, and gleaning minimal revenues from royalties and ASICS until 2005 or so, when UMTS might really kick in --- to seizing the opportunity to exploit continued 3GSM and wCDMA/UMTS failures... to bend established perceptions of standard dominance... and win converts to cdma2000 evolution in developing countries is, to me, a curious perspective. Opportunities are everywhere - - in China for 2.5 and 3G - with TDMA carriers in LA - with Cingular in the US - perhaps even with desperate European carriers --- There is a credible prospect that NTT's chronic problems will pull them toward additional Q IP and synchronicity. Due to Europe's growing discomfort, Q may well seize the prospect of influencing and infiltrating 3GPP standards in ways not recently perceived possible - as 3GPP carriers push the standard toward functionality...... To "cheer" for wCDMA/UMTS success at this point in time, as the tide turns in Q's favor, is analogous to hoping NextWave settles with the FCC on Monday for a quick billion.

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (11995)	6/25/2001 10:42:51 AM
From: Dennis Roth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196986

W-CDMA and cdma-2000 are not equally good for Qualcomm for at least the following reason. That except for a few Scandinavian countries, UMTS licenses do not require universal coverage as do many GSM licenses. UMTS will be deployed in urban islands with GSM/GPRS being the fall back mode in outlying areas. Also UMTS requires a a more expensive dual mode, dual band UMTS/grps/gsm phones that will be too expensive for many users without a need for high speed data or multi-media. In a GSM/UMTS system many users who don't need or can't afford UMTS will continue to use simple and cheap GSM phones or GSM/GPRS if slow speed data is good enough for their needs. Therefore it does make a difference to Qualcomm whether a TDMA system goes to GSM/GPRS/UMTS or CDMA-2000. In a CDMA-2000 system all users have CDMA phones, from high end multimedia phones to simple voice only economy models. While if a TDMA carrier switches to GSM/GPRS/UMTS only the high end users in urban areas have the CDMA UMTS phones. In many ways UMTS acts as a life line for GSM. It provides high speed data service for the urban elite while leaving GSM in place for the rest of the market. The success of UMTS means a smaller market for CDMA than if CDMA-2000 becomes wider spread.