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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (43880)	6/25/2001 9:29:18 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

John, You've written that you've been a lurker for a long time. If that's the case, you've seen me write many times that there are lots of ways to make money in the stock market and that my way is just one way. Your entire missive seems to disregard my comments about that. And I definitely don't like the implication that just because I "can't wrap [my] neurons around something DOES NOT mean that nobody can." I've never given the slightest notion that others can't do a better job of investing than I do. I really do wonder if you were paying attention in your lurking years, if you've missed everything that I've written about being a carpetologist formally trained in music. Do you not remember all the stuff about my thinking that if a lowly carpetologist can do this stuff, anyone can? Let me be perfectly clear for you, John, devoid of any need for innuendo or implication, in announcing that people whose backgrounds and careers prepare them for investing better than mine can very likely outperform my investments. People of virtually any background are likely to have the intelligence and discipline needed to outperform my investments because there are many, many ways to make money in the markets in addition to the ways that have proven successful for me. --Mike Buckley

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (43880)	6/25/2001 3:09:52 PM
From: EnricoPalazzo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

I have no difficulty accepting the fact that you do not feel equipped to attempt "Market Timing", and that you have made a decision to stick doggedly with what you know. But that does not invalidate the results of those who are, or diminish the advantages that obviously could be available if such a method could be found. It's good to know that you are able to accept the weaknesses of others, John. Re: "diminish the advantages that obviously could be available if such a method could be found": Yes, of course there are tremendous advantages that could be available if such a method could be found. I'm just rather skeptical that such a method has been found (I'm also skeptical that such a method could be found, but somewhat less so). I have seen no evidence of the wisdom of "market timing" over the long term. I can think of many investors who have outperformed the market over the long term by buying great companies at reasonable valuations (without consideration of the market's valuation, or the near-term future of the stocks). I certainly congratulate you on your fortune over the past 15 months. But that one data point doesn't exactly establish the sustainable competitive advantage that a market timer has over the rest of us.

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (43880)	6/25/2001 6:07:08 PM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Warren Buffett says the market cannot be timed. All he looks for is good buys, i.e. at a low price, of stocks with a franchise, a moat etc. Lacking the neurons for market timing, he seems to have done all right. Many people say he was just lucky but the probability of that gets smaller and smaller each year, The mistake that many of us made, was not that we didn't use TA it was that we didn't use a good valuation method to show us that our stocks were way overpriced. We are now discussing such valuation methods.