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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (4148)	6/25/2001 9:28:50 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 33421

Hey John... great discussion!! I was looking at the USD and I'm a little concerned that we're looking at a peak of around 124 or 125 before the inevitable downturn back to the lower arm of the uptrend channel. quotewatch.com There are two events, imo, that could cause this. The first is just an overall realization that the Fed is going to have to lower more to spur the US out of its profits recession, but they only give us a .25 point on Wednesday. This could set off a panic overseas markets, which are counting on a US recovery to save them. The second scenario (or one that exacerbates the first), is an outbreak of war in the Mid-East. I believe everyone pretty much expects one to occur, and we've been seeing the preliminary groundwork being laid for months now. This will be one that will eliminate Arafat from the political picture as representative of the Palestinians. It could also unleash a massive flight of capital to both the Dollar and Gold. The dollar should surge because the expectant upsurge in the price of oil and the need for dollars to pay for it. I also think that the fact that the US is running a budget surplus (or at least was.. :0) is far more favorable than the deficit spending we're seeing in competing economies. Whatcha think of my scenarios? Hawk