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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Lock-Up Expiration Hell Portfolio -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (195)6/26/2001 2:31:35 PM
From: keokalani'nui  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 1005
 
SG@N I mentioned earlier is headed for hell.

Now trading $1 below offering price. 72% become unlocked 9/08. Previous BV/share $1.30, option prices average $2.00. Financed almost entirely by VCs. OVP (active up here), Gates and Allen; and 3 from SF (including BoA which was an underwriter; each with about 2.5m shares). VCs aren't filling new funds, so there might be more liquidating than we saw a year ago and need to take advantage of newer opportunities at compressed values. Gates and Allen's funds are run by pro's who reduce risk.

D&O as a group own 43%; 3.4m shares are owned by 2 founders at $.001. 29m c/s out after offering giving a $204m MC on IPO.

DNA (its IP is incorporated in sg$n program) and MDRX (Mab co-development with walk-away rights) bought shares on offering pursuant to development/licensing agreements also unlock (mdx in part after 180 days). S-1 liberally associates lead product with Aventis, but it seems aventis is paying for 1/2 trials so far becase they are in combi with taxotere (aventis gets no product rights, and I choose to interpret that poorly).

Has gone from 0 to IPO in record time. Has 2 lead products in the clinic and 2 abstracts at asco; I'm no expert (no need to state the obvious) but the abstracts don't give me warm fuzzies. All else preclinical. Major technology once belonged to bms and depends on (1) quality of Mab target, and (2) immunoconjugate/toxin technology. Could be great.

My vote for fair market cap is no more than $100m. What with entering hell, I'm calling for a roasting from here. May I recommend sg@n to BLUE as a short with a cover at $3.65 on September 14?

BTW: I have never shorted a BT, but it feels OK in a pretend portfolio.

Wilder