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To: James Strauss who wrote (9131)	6/28/2001 1:35:26 PM
From: Bucky Katt	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13094

Jim, I dumped all my index positions yesterday, and you know I went long the day before, I just didn't like the early reaction to the FED move, but today I got in, had to pay more, natch. I think the 2 day theory we were talking about is valid. I don't feel the FED can see much of anything, they are out of ammo. The reason is simple, the core rate of inflation, according to the govt. is 2.50%, the FED funds rate is now 3.75%, which is 1.25% above what they figure the core rate to be. I don't believe we really have a 2.50 inflation rate, I think it is more like 3.50-3.75% So, in my mind they have already run rates down to a real world zero. The FED is out of real world gas, maybe they have one more 1/4 point move, and that is it. You can look at long term rates and see a problem developing. The bond guys are jittery. And banks can start making real stupid loans all over again. Throw in some more quarters of negative productivity growth and I can see all of this ending in a messy way. In the meantime, let us enjoy the rally, muted as it is.... I am glad I changed direction with respect to ORCL.

To: James Strauss who wrote (9131)	6/29/2001 11:06:49 AM
From: Bucky Katt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13094

Jim, DELL rise today triggered a first round of put buying for me as it crossed $27.5 Also closed calls in ORCL as it closed in on $20. What do you think of GLW & NT, for a 6-18 month hold? And it looks like the EU is going to make GE/HON do a little strip-tease/EU "stroking" before they give them their blessing. Hey, I thought we had free trade? Markets worldwide are on a razors edge the next few weeks, a synthetic no-man's land.....synthetics/derivatives are something I am writing a research paper about, in a few weeks I will post some of my thoughts, which might shock some. From Jan. - May 2001 (5 months) net cash inflow to mutual funds rang up $38 billion, which seems quite a bit, until you realize that is down over 80% year over year! Spending "quality" time here the next 9 days. Knocked off early yesterday for opening day>http://www.summerfest.com/home Good music, food, & beer Will also do the Taste of Chicago once or twice, why they run both at the same time seems kinda dumb..

To: James Strauss who wrote (9131)	7/6/2001 10:11:57 AM
From: Bucky Katt	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13094

Jim, just as I posted a short while back, "Markets worldwide are on a razors edge the next few weeks, a synthetic no-man's land.....synthetics/derivatives are something I am writing a research paper about, in a few weeks I will post some of my thoughts, which might shock some." Message 16012695 I also said things would get worse before they got better, looks like interest rate cuts ain't doing the job, what does the FED do now, when they are just about out of ammo? I think a weaker dollar is in our future, and that will be bad. The problem is, every other paper money is just crap, so we still win by default. Look at the Euro, total crap, the pound, same deal, and Brazil & Argentina are going to need many more $billions, soon. Could the dow, ndx, spx take out the spring lows? That would be healthy, Imo... "I still hear some of these street analyst people saying now we will see the recovery in the 3rd & 4th quarters. I think they need to realize this year is done, and they may end up selling used Ford Explorers in the Bronx. Sure, we will get some nice tradeable spikes, and the flipside troughs, but a new bull market? They must be nuts. So, just trade what the market will give up..." Message 15970901 ORCL failed to take out $20 for 4 days, so I had to reshort it.... And while the big caps get taken to the woodshed, many of the Rats are doing well, some very well..