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Technology Stocks : CDMA, Qualcomm, [Hong Kong, Korea, LA] THE MARKET TEST! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric L who wrote (1711)	6/29/2001 6:24:35 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1819

Continuing the review: <Will CDMA succeed in Los Angeles [at last]? That was a yes. How is CDMA going in Hong Kong, Korea, Trenton? Do people like it? CDMA is going very well in China, Korea and Japan, not to mention Trenton. Yes, people like it a LOT! Where there is a fair fight, CDMA wins hands down. See the USA for the scorecard, where TDMA, GSM, analogue and CDMA are all offered. Will China be the biggest CDMA market? Yes, until India gets up to speed but that will take at least until 2010 and more likely 2015. It's quite possible that India will remain a kind of human zoo, stuck in the old socialist world of government running everything and their poverty a warning to other countries about how wealth only exists if people are free to create it and KEEP IT FOR THEMSELVES. What technical developments are going on? I commented on Telecom99 being like the centre of a nuclear explosion as it goes critical. CDMA is part of that core. CTIA was full of CDMA and all the things which attach to it. I should try to make a list of all the developments going on. Maybe another day. There are too many. Has Nextwave Telecom bid too much in PCS spectrum auctions? Well, I said way back right after the 1996 auctions that the spectrum was a bargain [while all were moaning that it was a huge price, insane and all that rot]. I said that Nextwave might get a fright and end up paying more than they bid if they went the bankruptcy route. We now know what the 2001 value was. Now they have been awarded that spectrum by the USA judiciary and the FCC has to hand it over. Nextwave will grab it with both hands and pay the full price they bid. No more whining about the price and seeking of a discount via bankruptcy. The shareholders will stump up the money in a flash. When people whine about Nextwave getting bargain spectrum, they should keep in mind that Nextwave was part of the creation of CDMA and it was only the advent of CDMA which made the spectrum so valuable. QUALCOMM has lost those $billions because they undercharged for royalties, which left money on the table which was bid away in the auctions. The right royalty would have cut the bids. Nextwave had the courage of their convictions and were prepared to put their money on the line when many were claiming that CDMA would not work. To the risk takers go the rewards. Will notebook computers with built in CDMA phone take the world by storm? These are being developed and with the 1xRTT rollouts this year and next year, they'll have a quick enough and cheap enough connection to be desirable. Already, many devices which enable internet links are being sold. Microsoft wants to sell Tablet internet devices. Will you get rich from CDMA and Qualcomm? Done!!! Though many were only transiently rich and many are now impoverished. Oh well, easy come, easy go. It's better to be a has-been than a never-was. Related topics: Eudora - the email you are probably using Eudora continues to gain ground and with the advent of wireless, I expect that it will reach critical mass. The Mighty Microsoft Monolith and the built in email remain huge. eudoramail.com continues in service. When each QUALCOMM wireless device contains Eudora as an option, I expect sales will be huge. eudora.com could yet become the biggest thing on the planet, if they get financial transactions developed as part of Eudora - send 5q [initially equal to 5c] encrypted through cyberspace to a recipient who gets it in their account by simply opening the mail. 100q = 1Q = $1 initially, but it would be based on QUALCOMM stock value [and perhaps some others to give a spread and more confidence in it] so it would be a rising currency against the dollar. If they get voice-activated text developed, that will be as good! But that's a hard one [with accuracy]. Globalstar - the satellite phone system> Woe is me! An unbelievable failure of marketing, continuing to this day. Combined with an unbelievable lack of ability to negotiate a restructuring and continuation. The middle east "Peace Process" [apparently thought of as an oxymoron] is perhaps an easy deal by comparison. A wonderful system, now in orbit for 2 years [many of the satellites] and almost unused. Mqurice PS: Eric, 100 million CDMA subscribers should be about now. They are selling handsets at about 15 million a quarter of which only about 3 million would be replacement handsets [since CDMA is still so new]. 4 million new subscribers a month means we will be there any minute. 100 million subscribers is quite exciting as an achievement though I am surprised at how little advantage the great technical merits of CDMA have been in the real world of who actually ends up buying a device. GSM has held the field amazingly well. I really thought [a few years ago] that CDMA monthly device sales would now be exceeding GSM monthly sales. We are still far from that [though closing]. I take some comfort from that because that means CDMA will have a very strong position as competitors such as OFDM encroach. People will be much less price sensitive with the low prices which are here and getting lower than they were with high GSM prices in the early 1990s when CDMA was trying to get a foothold. It's easy to tempt a customer from a competitor with a tenth the price from $1 a minute to 10c a minute, but not so easy from 10c a minute to 1c a minute - people don't care; they just use what's convenient when prices are low enough.