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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bob Rudd who wrote (12718)	7/1/2001 1:58:29 AM
From: TimbaBear	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78553

NITE....the bad news of lower trade volumes and slower overseas enthusiasm (i.e. EASDAQ) for trading have already been priced into the stock at these levels. If one believes that we are heading into an upswing in the US economy, I believe that there is enough trading volume potential left for a hefty increase in revenues. Yes, many day-traders and high volume traders got wiped out over the last few years, but many just learned how to play the short side and are still trading. I believe we'll see an increase in on-line trading (which NITE gets a decent share of) and an increase in the brokerage businesses. Maybe not anywhere near the old levels, but high enough for NITE to give a decent return. Addition source of revenue from heavy options playing as they have acquired that ability over the years as well. JMO, I have traded in and out of NITE many times and am currently back in. I was a little early (about two weeks), I'm in at $12.30/share. I view this as more of a trading stock (good for quick 30-40% pops) than a long term hold though. I think it has a Beta of about 4, so it is not for the faint of heart <ggg> Timba

To: Bob Rudd who wrote (12718)	7/1/2001 10:32:22 PM
From: jhelmers	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78553

I like NITE from a little longer term perspective too. NITE has a market cap of 1.3b. There is no debt and cash on the books is about 365m. This year I think that NITE could earn as much as 80cents/shr even in the current environment. That's not bad. They are the market leader and should be the consolidator of this fragmented business. Plus as their margins are shrunk by decimalization, they have the option of no longer paying for order flow. this would do wonders for their bottom line. Let's face it, as the trading margins shrink, this is where the business has to go. the end result will be higher real commissions for everyone. There are certainly some risks to this scenario and the current business model; but the balance sheet gives you the strength and time to wait. The options business and over seas markets provide potential for growth. Management changes have occurred but the top two guys are not going anywhere. They own too much of the stock. JMO jhelmers