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Technology Stocks : Applied Micro Circuits Corp (AMCC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DBrian who wrote (1538)	7/1/2001 10:52:50 AM
From: Ibexx	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1805

A five-day forecast for AMCC based on neural network analysis: tradetrek.com Ibexx PS: The above is intended for information sharing only, not a stock recommendation.

To: DBrian who wrote (1538)	7/1/2001 1:35:52 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1805

Hi DB, Glad to see you still have the faith in the advance of technology. So do I. Believe it or not. My rather flippant post, stating that "it" was a one-year wonder, refers specifically and only to the action in the stock price of AMCC from February, 1999 through March, 2000. At the height of the insanity, my investment was "worth" 1,500% more than I had paid for it. I didn't capture that full gain, but did capture most of it. If I had held on to the stock, from 2/99 through the present, my gain would have been 70%. Still respectable, but no where near the "bubble" prices. What I meant to say, and will say now is that AMCC is now going to be considered a cyclical stock in a weak market sector for the foreseeable future. Anyone who thinks that we will see a return of the speculative bubble that created incredible market valuations for the likes of AMCC really ought to study the history of markets. I have, and there has never been, ever since the first speculative bubbles of the 1690's, a single instance where a mania repeats itself. I would refer interested readers to Edward Chancellor's excellent book: "Devil take the Hindmost". It is a wonderfully readable, entertaining and educational update to Charles Mackay's classic on the subject: "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds". What we witnessed in 1999 and 2000 would fit right in to Mackay's chronicle of the foolishness of mankind when it comes to money, the future and technology. But, as I say, you are absolutely correct, the network will eventually get built out. Though at a leisurely pace now that the ILECs and the financiers have pretty well destroyed to CLEC threat. While the CLECs were virile, everyone needed to seek market share, thus we compressed about 6 years of normal growth in the telecom equipment sector into 2 years. Now that they're gone, we will revert back to a pace of innovation more in balance with the industry's inherent EBITDA potential. IMHO. And this clearly makes AMCC no growth stock darling any longer. That was my point. Mr. Market is going to look at this one and yawn. This story is stale. Best, Ray :)