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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (19628)	7/3/2001 11:10:55 AM
From: pompsander	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Bobby, we may be having economic problems which can be analogized to Japan, and we may be able to lay charts of our capital markets over theirs and draw analogies....but the fundamental difference between the attitude of the two economies to "difficult times" is critical. Japan simply cannot accept the concept of failure. Many on the thread can explain better than I the cultural or historic reasons by poor business planning and execution in Japan is not allowed to fail, but the fact that the banks still, after a decade of malaise, carry billions and billions of dollars in worthless loans on the books, and allow the firms to which they lent the opportunity (no, the right!) to continue to operate while failing every reasonable test of business acumen. Innovation cannot rise through the deep layers of beaurocratic sewage above it. Nimbleness is not a trait to be rewarded, only tolerated (if that). Maybe Japan is finally recognizing it must allow (or force) some serious pruning to take place in its economic infrastructure or it cannot recover...0 interest rates sure can't do it in such an environment. While all of us rant and rave right now over Greenspan, the administration's policies, the new economy, etc., the system is slowly curing itself of excess. Failures abound....not a bad thing. The well-capitalized, nimble, clever company with a great new idea will prosper in the years ahead after the detritus is cleared away above it. I hate to see failure, but it is necessary periodically for the next layer of growth to occur. Japan has never accepted this...despite their claims to. Our capital markets may appear the same on a charting basis, but the fundamentals of our reaction to needed change are very different.