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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (5554)	7/3/2001 9:21:05 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Maurice, <<But I avoid buying during irrational exuberance because that's the greater-fool theory in action.>> Our chief difference may be that I believe in the greater crowds, depend on the greater crowds, as I always tend to edge for the exit sooner than the greater crowds. I want the greater crowds to be rushing toward me, reaching out for what I have … following adapted from my Softbank Chronicles … Message 12853201 In anticipation of a golden morning, one day soon … “Our magical Son is working the crowds to a frenzy. Frenzy is good. I am picturing the raised swaying arms of the crowds in Japan gently pass us over head one at a time to Nirvana Ranch on Maui, as the Latino beat pulsate throughout the Tokyo Stock Exchange, with tears in their eyes and NTT Docomo phones around their necks. Piles and piles of Postal Savings records underfoot to cushion the ground in case we fall. I am working day and night (4am-10pm) on a gizzilion items and am overwhelmed. Went jogging today. Ran very fast for very long, on adrenalin. While readying to go into town for reflexology, I noticed that I am more handsome than ever. The reflexology was good, got done over until my eye balls popped out. I am drunk on oxygen, and I am delirious from aerobasizing in place while sitting at my desk. When I shake and gyrate around in my chair energetically enough, I get dizzy and feel the same as I would had I drank one beer too many. Please do not stop the music. I promise to be a good boy this year, all year.” And I want to talk about gold in this fashion one fine day. The wait will be rewarded; the weight worth every ounce. <<I will not buying into any more hysteria>> You are too young to have lost faith to such an extent. You are not giving yourself credit for the ability to take the proper lessons away from NASDAQ 2000. <<There is no alarm bell at the top of a market hysteria>> Yes, there are plenty of bells, chimes, gongs, and flashing signs. Basically, be very suspicious when you start to feel like a god. For more hype, hysteria, and alarm bells, consult the Softbank Chronicles … Message 16020847 <<QUALCOMM will lead the world out of the gloom>> I am not particularly knowledgeable about QCOM and am not biased against it or for it. FYI, and simply for information … redherring.com Chugs, Jay

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (5554)	7/4/2001 1:19:19 PM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Maurice, I agree with you that QCOM has a lock on the future with its CDMA patents. But how fast can its profits grow? It's an absolute fact that world wide, many small telcos are going bankrupt and most of the large telcos are either deeply in debt(Europe) or seeing very slowly growing profits(US). All of these will very slowly buy the CDMA infrastructure for fast wireless transmission of data. Why slowly? Because of their lack of money and because of the lack of any huge demand. Users are satisfied with voice performance of non-CDMA systems. Who needs data transmission on a hand held device? Only a small group. There is a niche market, say for managing fleets of trucks, taxis, transmission to airplanes, and sales people who will be asked complicated questions that they need the company data bases to answer. All these relatively small markets, relatively small compared to wireless voice, need time to develop. So where is the application that the man in the street will leap to buy? Picture transmission, absolutely. That's 3G, super 3G, not 2.5. That will take 5-6 years to take off. Meanwhile expect the company to increase its profits only slowly. When picture transmission takes off, it will be another INTEL or such. But, stock buyers are not so interested in 5-6 years hence. As for profits from China they have to be discounted when you realize that there are powerful forces in China which are actually opposed to CDMA, and various other reasons to wait until the cheques clear. Are Intellectual Property rights recognized in China? I don't know. If so, it's certainly a new concept. I may be wrong about all this, but I have been watching QCOM for a long time. I don't consider myself pessimistic about QCOM. It may be an excellent stock to buy at these levels and constantly sell covered calls, expecting not much upward or downward movement, as the steady(though slow) growth and the glorious future way down the road, combat the high P/E. 60 times earnings is a high P/E. Good luck with Qualcomm. I think the company itself is excellent, forgetting about the share price.

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (5554)	7/4/2001 8:54:24 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Maurice, Malcolm has had some pretty unique experience in China many years ago, a strong belief in technology and the future of the 6 billion folks you often mentioned, and he is spot on ... the issue is one of "compelling value", not one of "compelling future". The valuation of many (again, I stay away specifically from QCOM) great companies can only be justified by twisting the intellect and apply low discount rate to their prospects, courtesy of Greenspan. Money is continuing to be wasted on a grand scale globally, and count on the long term interest rate to hold steady, and then go up, as capital is being ill treated. This prediction is independent of the discussion of inflation/deflation. The discount rate will be raised due to deteriorating credit quality and real profit (less inflation) growth projection. I keep saying I have no view on QCOM. It is not that I am lazy and not bothering to check out any specific company. I am simply not interested in picking boats in the midst of a small storm, soon to be followed by a bigger one. I simply prefer to stay high atop a hill, for the moment, working on my own boat (business). Chugs, Jay