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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KymarFye who wrote (79479)	7/4/2001 3:43:28 PM
From: eichler	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Kymar, Seems that the expectations of the Greatest Bear are born from historical observations and that history tends to repeat and appears to be doing just that even now. Are there examples in history which prove or just illustrate the possibility that speculative bubbles pop but then re-inflate themselves? Having no model in my knowledge to illustrate this possibility, I have little choice but to conclude that this time will ultimately be no different from past examples. It also occurs to me that sentiment that "this time will or could be different" is exactly why this phenomenon will play itself out to conclusion. It is only the presence of bullish perspective and money in the market which allows that money to capitulate eventually. While I will agree that the Nasty Nasdy tumble so far has hurt a great many, it still pales in comparison to the example of the '29 Dow. I will stop here as I am nearly finished with a response to the Mishedlo post and I don't wish to repeat myself too much. Might want to get your blinders out and hold 'em over the screen as it is probably my most bearish post ever to date. My teeth are long and sharp, my claws protruding and my bear coat full and thick! Warning! Warning! GGG Eichler

To: KymarFye who wrote (79479)	7/4/2001 4:18:16 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Kymar, you know what I fail to see in the financial press, is the possibility, IMTO, that what we are going to experience is a "double dip" recession. What do I mean by double dip? I mean that the first recession (what we are experiencing now) being mostly an inventory adjustment and excess capacity absorption (and thus capex) slow down, not really resulting in a true recession, namely 2Q's of negative growth in GDP, followed next year (late in the year, possibly starting next summer or autumn) by a true consumer recession (which will result in 2Q or more of negative GDP growth). This possibility is what is partially guiding my own model of a strong market after what I expect to be "the summer massacre", into next April, and then another bear market in equities late into 2002 and early 2003. Zeev