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To: Apollo who wrote (44163)	7/6/2001 9:53:20 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Apollo, Surely you'll get another cool post out of that one. But since you don't care about them and tekboy does, next time it would be nice of you to PM your post to him so he gets the credit. :) The only thing I can add is that the lack of apps is a major constraint to the tornado. Though you mentioned instanat messaging for consumers and e-mail anywhere for businesses, I think the real key that fosters a tornado will be the so-called killer app. Depending upon how much supply (bandwidth and geographic network coverage) is created before demand catches up, my guess is that the monster tornado will be in 3G, not 2.5G. I don't think 2.5G will create enough supply for a significant tornado in either strength or duration. One other point is that the manual leads us to presume that there is only one tornado in one space. Because adoption of CDMA is dependent upon the decision-making process of governments (as in China), it's still remotely possible (though probably only remote) that there might be a second voice-based tornado. The reason I make the distinction between voice and data instead of the distinction between 2.5G and 3G is because the lines will continue to blur as to why customers sign up and which of the the available services they acutally use. As Eric has always been right to point out, tracking subscribers has been a proxy at best for measuring the tornado; tracking subscribers really isn't an accurate measurement. That point will muddy up the issues even more in the future than in the past as new services become available. I really do believe it's in Qualcomm's best interest to implement the spin-off plan, but I've gotta admit that I have an agenda that doing so might allow us to simply use Qualcomm's revenue as the measure of future tornados if management gives us enough detail. Congratulations again on another superb post! --Mike Buckley

To: Apollo who wrote (44163)	7/6/2001 6:10:11 PM
From: tekboy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

two CPs in as many days! Stop the Insanity! tekboy/Ares@toobadyouholdEMC.com

To: Apollo who wrote (44163)	7/7/2001 10:08:33 AM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Apollo, re: 1xRTT cdma2000 I just clipped an overview of the status of 1xRTT implementation in Korea researched by Mike Woolfrey of EMC Cellular: Message 16041249 EMC is the official statastician for GSMA but the serve a very large customer base. Mike is one of the most objective wireless research analysts I follow, and he does not "dig the dirt". His UK firm, managed by Julian Herbert, is perhaps the most credible in the world, and their research methodology is very sound. They are focused on one industry only - mobile wireless. This is the first really comprehensive report that I have seen on 1x in Korea since SKT "launch" took place 9 months ago. It is quite positive, and gives a very clear picture of user rates (average throughput about 72 Kbps). No mention is made of the handover problem between IS95B & IS95C 1xRTT. For those that consider 1xRTT to be 3G, and for Merlin who made a similar statement about applications (in response to your question about constraints), Mike says: Korean operators are quite rightly proud of being the first nation to offer 3G networks. The government may wish to classify this as 2.5G, but to all intents and purposes the networks are 3G, according to ITU definitions. But like the rest of the industry there is too much focus is on data speeds. The issue is now whether or not the data speeds can be used to create mass market applications. ... Now that the operators have the system and hardware, attentions are turning to making the technology profitable. This can only done through the continued development of applications. I remain a little on the conservative side, in terms of estimating the pace of rollout of 1xRTT in the States. There are several reasons for this, but the two principle ones are: 1.) Inexperience of US carriers with packet-switched data (although Verizon may call on the experience of their CDPD group). All three Korean carriers had all been through the learning curve on IS95B 2.) Some normal debugging necessarry for a US as opposeed to Korean (regional standards variations) implementation. On the positive side, Both Sprint PCS and Verizon have invested considerable time, effort, and dollars on peparing their networks for the implementation, and their engineering talent and leasdership is top notch. I suspect that by end of 2002 they will be well deployed. Congratulations on your well deserved, back to back, Cool Posts. - Eric -