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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kvkkc1 who wrote (53916)	7/6/2001 10:55:41 AM
From: Rob C.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

knc, Fed is Tuesday August 21st. federalreserve.gov Regards, Rob

To: kvkkc1 who wrote (53916)	7/6/2001 11:06:56 AM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

I don't know. 50's a bit steep, given the previous cuts should just now be rippling through the economy. He doesn't want to use all his ammo up too soon and end up in a Japan-like situation. Although, I've never agreed with that comparison, since Japan has so many political idiosynchracies which bias that economy towards inefficiencies. Not to mention their severe banking problems and corporate incestuousness. Anyway, back to the topic at hand. I bet a 25 pt cut. BTW, whoever said they were about to buy Cisco at $17.5, I'd hold off if I were you. Wait until we are a week or so away from the earnings call. Then you have a better chance of buying without worrying about another bomb being dropped on you. Of course, I'm waiting for the con call myself. If Cisco survives this quarter and meets earnings, then the stock may do ok for the next 3 months.

To: kvkkc1 who wrote (53916)	7/6/2001 9:19:08 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

OT re Fed cuts: The only way we get a 1/2% cut between regular meetings, is if we get some "exogenous shock", or a situation like in October 1998, and the markets are tanking. Otherwise, we get 1/4% at the next regular meeting, maybe one more 1/4% after that, and then the Fed is done. Fed cuts have their maximum effect on the economy 18 months out. Everyone uses the "6 month lagtime" figure, but that's when rate changes begin (just begin) to have an effect. So, assuming the mid-point of this rate-lowering period was in about April 2001, that means the maximum effect of the 2001 cuts won't be felt till October 2002. And, right now, what we are (still) feeling is the effect of the rate increases in 2000. And, just as the Fed overreacted in 2000 (raising rates too much), there is a real danger that they are currently overreacting in the other direction (lowering too much). If inflation gets over 4%, the Fed will be raising rates in 2002, and I'll be exiting most of my long positions in stocks, until after the recession.