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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (79591)	7/6/2001 7:03:12 PM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

I hope you're right. We may rally Monday. EMC at 21.60 anyone? NOK at $19? These companies now down 75%. Even the best of the best have fallen. Only IBM and VZ have been stable but they were undervalued to begin with.

To: t2 who wrote (79591)	7/7/2001 5:26:11 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

People keep talking about all this sideline cash ready to come into the market. Following is my reply to those that believe this will prop up the markets and that we will have a huge earnings run. Perhaps much of that mythical sideline money was BLATANTLY spent propping up the market for end of quarter close. Perhaps there really is no such thing as sideline money ready to come into the market in the first place. Perhaps there are net fund outflows (or will be if we continue to tank). Now with AMD and EMC warning and stocks headed lower, perhaps this "sideline cash" waits until AFTER earnings to decide what to buy. Perhaps, just perhaps, even the total idiots will see there is no recovery. Everyone is HOPING that the sideline money will bail out poorly placed bets on the long side. The slope of hope is down and we are riding on it. Everyone and their brother is expecting a big rise on earnings. Why? Because they rallied in Jan and April on garbage earnings? Because of a famed second half recovery that everyone with any brains knows is a total lie? Because stocks are undervalued? Because the earnings will be good? Because they will now all exceed the lowered, lowered, and re-re-relowered estimates when EMC and AND could not. Hell, I can only think of one good reason for a rally and it is just a bit early I think. Options manipulations. If too many puts are in the money. On that basis, I expect stocks to take quite a hit next week. Then we rally for options expiry when everyone on TV will proclaim get in for earnings. After options manipulations madness, I expect stocks to rise on an individual basis going into earnings followed by immediate selloff, good bad or indifferent (stock by stock by stock). Perhaps there will be a few headfakes to suck people into loading up on calls. IMHO, the lies and good news are priced in. As you have seen with AMD and EMC, the bad new is not. It's about time we selloff on bad earnings and the earnings will be universally bad I think. When everyone gives up on the recovery is when I want to buy. Here's to a retest of the April lows. M