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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (48810)	7/6/2001 8:50:33 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

If recent "bubble" business levels are removed from all tech companies, is it possible that the next up cycle takes AMAT from $4B to $12B Assuming there was a bubble in this sector, wouldn't companies like INTC have pared back their capex instead of increasing it to $7.5B for CY01? Bubble is a term oft bandied about when talking about technology, but not all technology sectors are equal. The internet and the FO space was indeed a bubble; the same could not be said of the SCE sector IMO. BK

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (48810)	7/6/2001 8:57:21 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Is it possible that "the percentage gains we are seeking" have been conditioned by a ferocious bull market, and that trough-to-peak price swings of 3X to 7.5X are not typical of a normal market?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (48810)	7/7/2001 1:50:59 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

re: Do you have revenue models for building long positions or are they based on technical analysis? I have revenue and profit models, and valuation yardsticks, to decide my (approximate) buy-prices. Then, once the prices get in range, I use TA to pick the exact prices. But that's when I'm accumulating LT positions. This year, I've been short-term range-trading, which is a very different game, with different rules. For that, I use mostly TA, and try to gauge the mood of the market (so I can bet against it). Frankly, I'm having a hard time establishing those "post-bubble revenue start points and growth rates". I agree, it is critical to do that. This is one big reason I am so hesitant to establish LT positions now: I distrust my own guesses (and everyone else's), about the future. Hopefully, the picture will get clearer with time, as companies clean up the mess (too much debt, too much inventory, too much capacity, etc.). You're right, simply being contrarian isn't enough to decide when to buy. Lots of stocks, in the last 14 months, have spiked down on huge volume after very bad news came out. Then, after a partial recovery, they do it again. And again. And again. So, buying the dips hasn't worked well, because valuations were still far above pre-bubble levels (even after the second or third dip), and the fundamentals kept deteriorating. I know I'm not smart enough to know when the fundamentals will stop getting worse. And I certainly won't be the first to hear the first good news. But, at some point, valuations will get low enough (if not in semi-equips, then in some other sector, I don't care), so I'll buy in spite of my huge uncertainty about the future.