Cha2,
re: QCOM - Mobile Wireless Data Tornado Watch
<< My view. >>
Mine is offered as counterpoint.
As is often the case you and I approach this from different perspectives. I think that is healthy, but I also think that starting out with a cdma-centric bias dulls objectivity and if you compound that by selectively excluding tornado indicators that are non-cdma based or limited to some Asian countries and North America", that analyses becomes too restrictive for my taste.
<< Qualcomm will continue as the CDMA gorilla. >>
We agree on that for the most part, but I suspect that you might not agree with my qualification that they are the gorilla of cdmaOne/cdma2000 which is a substantial enough habitat since some 30 Carriers supporting 100 Million subscribers worldwide use their technology, which is as Mike said, "a mass market", and clearly a market that is substantial enough to support a gorilla..
Since there are no commercial 3GSM WCDMA carriers the extension of Qualcomm's domain to include that technology platform is somewhat moot today, but will not be by the time we validate any wireless data tornado.
<< It will become the mobile wireless data gorilla. >>
I have also thought it had the potential to be, or it least be the multi-mode CDMA gorilla, but I have serious reservations about either potential at the current time, and I stated them in my response to ggamer. My mind remains open on this point.
My current thinking is Qualcomm is more likely to become what Moore calls a "local gorilla" inside a niche (cdma2000) - or, in other words a chimp.
I base this upon the rapid rise followed by decline of their current generation market share (12.5%), their failure to capture as many new converts to their technology as they would have wished, the 3G order book, their sensible capitulation or "compromise" on their 5 principles of 1998, and what I consider to be a less sensible, but perhaps necessary, strategy following that "compromise".
The game is not over yet, by any means, and I could be doing a misread of the situation or of Moore, but over the last several months, I've focused my RFM reading on the "Chimp", as well as the "Gorilla" and tried to as objectively as possible examine what Qualcomm needs to accomplish to become a gorilla outside the cdmaOne/cdma2000 niche.
Moore talks about the two paths that the chimp is forced to take and clearly Qualcomm has chosen the first path:
"Continue its attack on the gorilla [or in this case the dominant technology migration path] in an attempt to wrest mass market control from it".
At this stage of the game, and given the path they chose after the "compromise", I would not want to see them do otherwise. At some point in the future they can if necessary, "retreat into one or more niche markets to become a 'local gorilla' within those markets".
Of course for the chimp "the correct long-term response is to find a new tornado".
... and all this, JMHO, of course.
<< Agree that there will never be a 3G tornado as such, since 3G is not where to look. >>
I believe that there will be a 2nd tornado, the multimedia data tornado, but for the moment, I do think it is proper to identify the first.
Do you have any suggestions on how we identify the tornado formation or what metrics we use to track it?
<< The beginning of the mobile wireless data bowling alley action is likely in the second half of this year >>
This is where I think cdma-centricity blinds.
I firmly believe that two pins have already fallen in the bowling alley:
1. The amazing success of GSM Messaging (two-way SMS) - this wireless data capability, existed in GSM since 1992, and wallowed in the chasm for years. It was enhanced in GSM Phase 2 in 1995, but did not proliferate until Nokia introduced 'Smart Messaging" and SMS data 'roaming' became widespread in 1999. 50 BILLION Wireless text messages - 50 BILLION - were sent globally in Q1 2001. This is a 16 fold increase in 2 years, and a 5 fold increase in 1 year, and the hypergrowth continues unabated. The CDMA and the TDMA community are moving quickly (albeit independently) to implement 2-way messaging as a result, and this will continue the phenomenon. Verizon has proposed (insisted) within 3GPP2 that the cdma2000 community incorporate Enhanced Message Service (EMS) in a fashion compatible with the way it has been standardized in 3GPP.
2. The amazing success of DoCoMo PDC 'i-mode' - utilizing packet switched data transmission at 9.6 kbps, and featuring messaging, mail, and wireless web access, has in little more than 2 years attracted 24 million subscribers (compared to 7.6 million KDDI IS-95B CDMA WAP based EZWeb subscribers), and has fashioned a model that many are now attempting to clone, in whole or in part. KDDI is now coffering limited 'i-mode' access to its customers.
<< When is starts it will be concentrated in CDMA 2000 (including 1xEV DO and 1xEV) ... >>
Unless GPRS is an abject failure, when it starts it will NOT be concentrated in cdma2000 and most particularly not in the full cdma2000 family.
When it starts it will be concentrated in 1xRTT and GPRS with some HSCSD complementing GPRS, although full scale national buildouts of 3GSM WCDMA will commence next year by two carriers in Japan, and this could contribute to tornado growth.
If we have to wait for 1xEV-DO or especially 1xEV-DV that tornado you speak of is one heck of a long ways away, and yes I have listened to and read Qualcomm's and CDG's statements that 1xEV-DO will launch commercially this year,
1xEV-DV is vaporware at the moment. 3GPP2 was to agree on a baseline for it in June but I do not know if that was accomplished. It will be interesting if the Motorola/Nokia's 1XTREME was chosen baseline as seemed to be favored by Sprint PCS, ALLTEL, and Qwest (with Verizon seemingly in no hurry to select the baseline). Look for full deployment of 1xEV-DV in maybe 2005, and probably about the same time as WCDMA with HSDPA.
It may take these two evolved CDMA technologies to trigger the 3G wireless multimedia tornado, if indeed one occurs.
Meanwhile some good and LONG overdue CDMA news (aka the carriers taking things into their own hands):
Message 16042263
<< Best >>
... and best to you.
- Eric - |
