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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: limtex who wrote (38670)	7/7/2001 5:17:50 PM
From: BirdDog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

...nightmare that you are in the middle of a 1929 mess all over again and then you wake up with the amazing relief that it was just a bad dream. This time the bad dream was for real. I can't help but wonder about the comparison to 1929? After all...this has been a much worse crash, as seen simply by the numbers at the market. But... please correct me if I'm wrong... wasn't 1929 much more devastating to investors and lenders alike? Reason One) In 1929 people were investing ten percent and the other 90% of their investments were on margin. When the market crashed, they lost everything they ever invested. The "lenders" also lost a whole lot and were devastated beyond repair. Now I see many hurt badly as compared to the March 2k high... but not completely wiped out and the "lenders" haven't been devastated beyond repair. Reason Two) In 1929 people were simply going crazy investing in companies that didn't have the possibility of anything great in growth or future earnings. They were simply throwing money in blindly. Now we have had companies that were definitely growing at over 100% annually. We also had the dot bombs...but at least they had fantastic possibilities... people knew they were loaning these companies money in hopes the gamble might pay off. Reason three) How much of the lack of IT spending is actually not having the money to spend? How much of the lack of spending is due to fear? I don't know how to actually find out....but am siding with mostly fear. Remove the fear and spending will increase. This was not the case after the 1929 crash... there wasn't money to spend. Please correct me if any of this is wrong. But I just don't see the devastation that occured in 1929. Even though the crash is much worse. Yes, I do see the other countries now hurting because of our paranoid Fed. But do you see everything fallen apart like it did in the Depression? I have failed to see that? BirdDog

To: limtex who wrote (38670)	7/8/2001 1:28:29 PM
From: RR	Respond to of 65232

Hi Limtex: I stay with techs primarily as well. As to shorting, I prefer using options. U mentioned the nightmare re 1929. Well, I tell ya, I wasn't around then, but I've sure had enough nightmares I've lived first hand in this market anyway. Had this market hand me my head on a platter many times, especially trading commodities. Bad to be on the wrong side, have a position turn bad, and the market tank so quickly ya can't even get out in a timely fashion. Bad news. Anyway, things will get better. Just a question of time. Hang in there. Have a great Sunday. RR