To: FastC6 who wrote (158654 ) 7/7/2001 4:04:43 PM From: asenna1 Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 769667 Mr. Bush's Fiscal Gaffe No sooner had George W. Bush become president than he began warning of an impending recession and campaigning for a huge tax cut. But he forgot — or perhaps did not know — that a slowing economy, with lower corporate profits and personal earnings, would automatically result in lower tax collections and throw his knife-edged fiscal plan into imbalance. So instead of residing peacefully in "lockboxes" for the next decade, the trust funds collected to cover baby boomers' Social Security and Medicare benefits may be tapped as early as this year. Mr. Bush gave up long-term fiscal discipline for short-term political gain, and the salad days of surpluses have transmogrified into the bad old days of budget bickering. It all began in January. With a decade of budget surpluses ahead, Mr. Bush swore he could deliver a trillion-dollar tax cut while erasing the national debt and leaving the trust funds for Social Security and Medicare untouched for 10 years. But after Congress set its spending levels and passed Mr. Bush's tax cut, less than $10 billion worth of leeway was left in this year's budget before the government would have to pry open the lockboxes. Now, thanks to shrinking income tax revenues, that narrow margin of error is about to disappear. In August the Congressional Budget Office will probably adjust its estimates of this year's corporate tax collections downward for the second time in four months. Senator Kent Conrad, the new chairman of the Budget Committee, believes that the Budget Office will find this revenue estimate $23 billion lower. Since so little of the surplus was left, the Social Security and Medicare trust funds will have to shore up the shortfall. Lawrence Lindsey, Mr. Bush's top economic adviser, maintains that Congress is as much to blame for this sudden budget crunch. He says increases in non-defense discretionary spending exceeded the amounts presumed by Mr. Bush's plan. Yet for many programs these increases are actually decreases when adjusted for inflation and population growth. One might argue that Congress did surprisingly well relative to Mr. Bush, since he had the easy job of touting a tax cut while Congress had the unpopular task of capping spending. These recriminations are reminiscent of the 1980's, when Democrats in Congress blamed Ronald Reagan's tax cuts and defense buildup for the nation's vast deficits while the president blamed Congress for profligate spending on entitlement programs. The ballooning deficits of those days, however, will be dwarfed by the ones that arrive when Social Security and Medicare go into the red. Delving into their trust funds now would bring that financial crisis, usually assumed to be a decade away, several years closer. There is no quick escape from this morass. Congress will probably have to raise its unrealistically low spending caps, and promised initiatives such as a Medicare prescription drug benefit are not even included in the current calculations. Routine extensions of expiring tax credits and spending programs, which the Budget Office's projections do not encompass, will create more shortfalls even if the economy makes a speedy recovery. The safest plan of action would be to trim the tax cut — especially in its later, more regressive years. That seems unlikely with this president, though his father did manage to recoup some of the Reagan tax cuts. In the meantime, prudent Americans should try to sock some money away. By cutting their taxes now, Mr. Bush has virtually guaranteed a costly future.nytimes.com