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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (19964)	7/7/2001 6:13:41 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 30051

I would say that where EMC goes, NTAP will follow, and since EMC has broken to a new low, I would expect NTAP to do the same. Right now, these two are starting a serious fight (including court fights on prior employees etc.) which will involve price competition, no one wins these fights. Since EMC has a bigger and deeper pocket, it will probably win. EMC has almost 8 times as much cash as NTAP has, and its trailing P/E is half that of EMC, so do not be surprised if before every thing is said and done both get to about 2/3 times book and sales. (right now they are about 4 to 5 times book and sales). Let see how they hold up in the next five six weeks... Zeev

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (19964)	7/7/2001 6:24:29 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Jacob, I definately like your idea of leaps. Pleanty of time to be right. My course of action is to do no LONG buys until we test 1850. I really doubt that holds. If you believe there is a solid chance that we test the lows of 1600-1700 or so, then why not wait until then. That is a huge mistake I made in April. With leaps one does not have to be right now, just eventually. Even a 300 ponint rise from the low will make a ton of money in the right leaps. The april rally we had would have produced a 5 bagger at least on many stocks. 10 baggers if you had the guts to go with short term options. Now, will NTAP be the right company? I would rather bet on it than EMC. On a 50% rise, I am pretty sure one would have a 100% gain if not better even paying the premiums for long term leaps. Short term options could get crushed if the stock continues to fall or you mis-time the bottom. All indications are now for a retest of the bottom IMHO. There is still complacancy, everyone is expecting an earning run(hell everyone is acting as if an earnings run is a given). All that said.... Why jump in now? But as for the idea, I believe it is solid. Wait for 1850 (minimum, better yet 1700 or other solid indicators a bottom is forming) and load up on leap calls. That is my plan as well. I like CREE RMBS EMLX for this play as well. M