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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (19965)	7/7/2001 6:29:28 PM
From: James Calladine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

ZEEV: From your comments on NTAP and EMC, it sounds as if you expect a great LEVELING in all major tech sectors based on: -- uncertain profits -- uncertain growth rates -- uncertainty about abilities of companies to perform in other than "boom" markets Is it correct that you expect the PE multiples of former "high-flyers" to be repriced to the point that there is relatively little difference between "the best" and the "worst" in a sector? And that the pricing within a sector will have more to do with price/sales and cash/burn rate (if the company is not currently profitable than the traditional PEG measurements? Again, many thanks for your inspired and selfless contributions to the thread. Namaste! Jim

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (19965)	7/7/2001 6:41:40 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30051

Wow. And I thought I was bearish. You're expecting NTAP to go to 2 (from a 2000 high of 152!). Yes, they are considered to be in the same sector. And managements of both companies have said that NAS and SAN are converging. But that's the future. Right now, they have only partial overlap in product offerings and customer bases. Yesterday on EMC had the feel of a capitulation low. Month after month of bad news, capped by the company warning (and how!), and a spike down on big volume. Assuming 30-50% EPS growth resumes once the macro picture clears, valuations are now reasonable. I don't know how to use book value for a company whose value is mostly between the ears of its employees, and in its proprietary intellectual property. I think expecting a P/S of 1 is way too bearish, in an industy with such high margins.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (19965)	7/7/2001 10:30:29 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Zeev, I have to say that on Friday it seemed from reading your posts you were as close to being scared (after 3:00) as I can remember this year. When you aggressively unloaded positions in rapid fire sequence, it was enough to make a person shudder (unless that person had puts like I purchased on Friday). As bad as it was getting, and as bad as we believed things were going to get, you still made money on Friday. Truly amazing. As for Bobby's comments about batting .300 or .400, I'd have to believe your trades must be in the .900 plus range. Getting the trend right is good, but making money on trades is what we're doing here, and your average is more like a first baseman's fielding percentage than a batting average (or like Rick Barry or Calvin Murphy's lifetime free throw shooting percentage).