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Technology Stocks : Oclaro, Inc. (Avanex-Bookham) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LTK007 who wrote (1884)	7/8/2001 10:11:19 AM
From: James Calladine	Respond to of 2293

"this stock has been there" I agree. In this market, "this stock has been there" is almost a built-in argument for why the stock should be selling at 5/10% of the "been there" high. Only stocks with very strong performance that demonstrably are continuing to succeed get any kind of different view. And that viewpoint is diminishing as well. Namaste! Jim

To: LTK007 who wrote (1884)	7/8/2001 2:04:40 PM
From: rainwater	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2293

"Our view will be controversial, but we believe the shares of most stocks in the photonics sector have reach levels where it is time to be controversial." - Wit SoundView Jun 22 2001 LTK007 - I agree with you. You are missing my point though about using a controversial premise to counter another controversial premise. I used 100 because Zebraspot used 3 as a projection. As a counter to an absence of presentation of any logic behind his projection I used mine as "its been there" - end of discussion. Also a lot of the discussion here about Price/Revenues is missing the main issue - the components that make up that revenue number.... guys instead of just comparing irelevant metrics - check out what makes that revenue number - and especially the growth of the individual components... the total revenue may belie the truth (or the possible truth - were capital spending only to resume). AVNX paradigm has hardly begun and any projections are vaporware right now (positive or negative). They could be a rocket or zero - that's what true paradigms look like before everyone has their numbers and projections. Think PowerMux & chromatic dispersion - NOT POwerFilter...everyone has those anyway, ...read Wit SoundView's opinion... about capital spending...... again just another opinion in time... but a controversial one nevertheless. Better early than late. Wit SoundView Morning Research Highlights June 22, 2001 Photonics Update K Slocum We believe it is time to rebuild positions in the optical communications sector. The widespread adoption of high speed access has not nearly run its course and the move to optical technology to support that service will reaccelerate over the course of next year. Most investors have moved to the sidelines and are assuming carriers will be able to mine capacity from deployed infrastructure with minimal incremental hardware investments. That is far from true and we expect carriers to improve their spending patterns moving through next year. That should drive improving results from the levels that will be reported for the June quarter and predicted for September. Managements that once saw no end in sight to their growth now see no end to the downturn all the while their customers report continued growth in traffic. We believe that economic concerns have exacerbated the slowdown that was initially driven by network capacity rationalization. It has precipitated an unsustainably low level of equipment investment. That should trigger a sharper rebound for revenues and profits than analyst estimates or investors expectations now anticipate. We are reiterating strong buy ratings on Ciena, Cisco Systems, Digital Lightwave and Finisar. We are raising our opinion from buy to strong buy on JDS Uniphase and Optical Communications Products. We are reiterating our buy ratings on Tellium and Corning and raising our rating on Nortel Networks from hold to buy. We expect that this group of companies could produce appreciation potential of 50 to 100% during the next 12 to 18 months.