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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (48853)	7/8/2001 3:00:59 PM
From: John Trader	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Thanks Gottfried. Your charts cut through a lot of noise. It is encouraging to know that there have been past downturns which did not last that long. I know that this time it is different though. This will combine with that, combined with the great bubble, and that and the other thing, and so we are in for years and years of despair. <G> It is almost like the reverse of the "this time it is different argument" we had in the spring of 2000 where bulls argued that our ideas on valuation needed to change because of the "new economy", etc. Hope I am not out of line by making a bit fun out of it all. I just don't see how things are so terrible. Let me share one recent experience. I just went to buy a new toaster at Target, and there were about 10 different models to choose from. I bought the cheapest one for $8.00, and I think it is the best toaster I have ever owned. Even the styling is good. I think this reflects on our current standard of living and I am guessing that during the great depression there were only about 2 or 3 toasters to choose from. Technological advances (e.g. manufacturing efficiencies) have made toasters cheaper and better, and the market has responded to consumer demand to offer many choices. Another example is coffee. The success of Starbucks is related to the desire for quality and increased choice among consumers. Last time I stopped into a Starbucks, there were about 20 different coffee products on the menu. I am thinking that this desire for choice and quality is going to affect the market for electronic gadgets, and so chip sales will have to rebound at some point. Also I think bandwidth will become more important, and consumers will demand this as well, driving those telecom infrastructure stocks at some point. I think things are getting better, and hope this view catches on sometime soon, so we can get the chain-reaction effect working the other way for us. As to when this will happen, who knows. John