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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: John Trader who wrote (48855)7/8/2001 3:30:18 PM
From: Gottfried  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 70976
 
John, re >It is almost like the reverse of the "this time it is different argument" we had in the spring of 2000 where bulls argued that our ideas on valuation needed to change because of the "new economy", etc.<

Heck, late August 2000 you coulda paid $1,995 for a report forecasting Blue Skies till 2003. Message 16043316

But nothing can stop the forecasters from forecasting. They can't just say "we have no idea" and admit that their most logical predictions are often wrong. Gene Epstein covers the subject in "Busted Crystal Balls" in the current Barron's. Of course all the forecasters have impeccable credentials.
interactive.wsj.com

Gottfried



To: John Trader who wrote (48855)7/8/2001 10:59:31 PM
From: Cary Salsberg  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 70976
 
RE: "Hope I am not out of line by making a bit fun out of it all."

You are not out of line if you have a lot of money on the line.



To: John Trader who wrote (48855)7/9/2001 12:32:14 PM
From: Math Junkie  Respond to of 70976
 
I don't know whether this will help or hurt in the despair department, but you can get a long term view of historical downcycle durations from slide 8 of the June Infrastructure presentation. It looks like the longest downcycle was 1988 to 1992. This is somewhat of a crude tool though, since it is displaying year-on-year results. Note that the 1996 and 1998 semiconductor equipment slumps show as part of one long downturn on that slide.

Message 16022668