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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joseph Beltran who wrote (48936)	7/9/2001 7:08:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Yeah, I love the way that guy gives interviews. You can tell he's been through downturns before and knows full well how to handle them.

To: Joseph Beltran who wrote (48936)	7/9/2001 7:12:16 PM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

" Futures up despite another warning from Corning, which painted a pretty horrible picture. I guess whatever has not been priced into that stock by now will be done tomorrow." Joe, A good sign will be if Corning et al actually wind up for the day or at worse down a bit. Unlikely, but it would be good omen for naz if it occurred. If FO can whether this, semis should do better in the market place and so on. No black monday today and if we can avoid one tomorrow we may be back in the 2000-2300 range. mike

To: Joseph Beltran who wrote (48936)	7/9/2001 7:32:46 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

RE: "I guess whatever has not been priced into that stock by now will be done tomorrow." Corning said 12 to 18 months before a recovery. Funny, this agrees with Lucent and NT. Maybe they know something. What has not been priced in, is the effect 12 to 18 months will have on semi-equips. To make it really very simple, how many of you would invest in a $3B fab so that your laptop will run at 2GHz instead of 500Mhz? If you are a big porn fan, don't answer, because you don't represent the mainstream. The future of most semi companies is in the network, not the PC. So, the network is the future of semi-equips. The future will be delayed 12 to 18 months. During that time revenues will fall to 20-30% of 2000 peak revenues. Losses and layoffs will abound along with lower stock prices. I will buy because I agree with Morgan that things will get better. What I don't know is how low the price will fall and how much better it will get in the next 5 years. I would be interested if anyone hears Morgan say $20B by 2005, again. I think $12B.