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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (48944)	7/9/2001 8:43:11 PM
From: Joseph Beltran	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

If we assume that an earnings "recovery" among the semi-equipment makers will start in about a year's time and if the market discounts 9-12 months out it seems to me that we should be approaching the time (within the next 3 months) when the lows in the sector will be put in. If I were an institution, fund, (or individual) holding AMAT, NVLS, etc which was purchased during the lows of last year why would I want to exit that position now only to re-enter it in the next 3 months? i happen to be in that position and I really like the fact that I'm quickly approaching the line where I can look to long term capital gains.

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (48944)	7/9/2001 11:15:06 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

None of these guys predicted the recession in their industry, or company. Why expect any accuracy from their prediction for a recovery 12 - 18 months from now. Sounds like jawboning at best if not suicidal depression. <g> However, GLW, NT, etc. could have a flow blown recovery next Q and wouldn't predict it until 2 Qs later.

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (48944)	7/10/2001 6:30:47 AM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

how many of you would invest in a $3B fab so that your laptop will run at 2GHz instead of 500Mhz? Great question, Cary. It is the type of question that Warren Buffet would ask if he were a tech investor. But too few of us view our investments in such terms. Instead we simplistically extrapolate the last decade's trendline in the stock price and expect ever higher highs. What I don't understand is why with your clear-headed view of the fundamental problem in semi and network industry, you will nevertheless plow ahead with your scale-down buy program starting at 40. "I will buy because I agree with Morgan that things will get better." I hope you are being sarcastic. If not, please explain why you will invest $3 billion in that new fab.